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Market Update
Markets start the week with a friendly bias to risk appetite, as traders react to last week’s Christmas Eve news that the EU and UK had managed to agree on a “bare-bones” free trade deal and after US President Donald Trump last night backed down from threats to veto the $900B Covid-19 aid bill that was given Congressional approval last Monday. Trump has now signed the bill into law, as well as the omnibus $1.4T spending package that averts a government shutdown. Adding to the upbeat tone, mass vaccinations are underway in the EU, with first jabs being administered over the weekend – this news seems to have, for now, overshadowed news of further detection of the mutant Covid-19 strain that originated in the UK across the mainland, as well as in Japan and Canada.
European equities thus trade with decent gains across the board (Stoxx 600 +0.8%), with the DAX seemingly finding a particularly strong bid on the positive Brexit news (after all, the UK is a key market for German exports), up more than 1.5%. The FTSE 100 has not yet had time to react to the Brexit news given the fact that UK markets are closed for bank holiday Monday – thin volumes are likely to continue until the arrival of US players anytime from now, though conditions are likely to remain somewhat this give the time of year. A quick look at US futures markets; e-mini S&P futures are up 0.7%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.7% and Dow futures up 0.6%.
In terms of other asset classes; US bond yields are higher and the US treasury curve a little steeper amid a lack of demand for safe haven bonds across the pond (while peripheral European bond yields are lower, likely a reflection of risk on conditions, given that these are seen as more of a risk asset than a safe haven). The risk on feel to trade is also evident in crude oil markets (WTI +1.0% or around 50 cents to above $48.50), industrial metal (Copper +0.6%) and precious metals markets (XAG/USD +1.7%, XPD/USD +1.2%, XPT/USD +0.9%), although spot gold has been a little choppier and currently trades flat on the day and is back under $1880 having briefly tested $1900 this morning.
FX Markets
Photo by John McArthur.
Things are a little less clear cut in FX markets; USD was initially under pressure and things were quite risk on, but when the Dollar Index (DXY) hit the 90.00 level at around 1000GMT, it found a solid bid and completely erased the day’s losses. No particular news or fundamental developments were behind the move, which seems to have hurt the likes of NZD, AUD and GBP the most. Indeed, GBPUSD is down nearly 0.5% at the time of writing, the cross having slumped below 1.3500 in recent trade.
GBP seemingly continues to fall victim to a “sell the fact” reaction following last week’s Brexit deal. News that EU ambassadors unanimously approved the Brexit deal has hardly lifted spirits (was very much expected, just as the House of Commons is expected to do so this week). The move lower in GBP might also reflect some pessimism regarding the fact that many see the deal as not being all that good. Bloomberg was out with a report over the weekend detailing how negotiations aren’t even over; 1) the issue of level playing field is likely to continue to remain thorny as the UK diverges from the EU, 2) there is still no substantial deal covering financial services, 3) there is only a temporary deal to continue data flows (expires in 6 months) and 4) after the five and a half year fishing transitions, annual negotiations will commence.
Meanwhile, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are down around 0.2% a piece to back under 0.7600 and just above the 0.7100 level respectively; a moderation to the YoY growth rate of Chinese industrial profits to 15.5% from 28.2% in November (data released on Saturday) might be weighing somewhat.
Elsewhere, EUR clings on to gains vs USD on the day, with EURUSD remaining supported above the 1.2200 handle for now and a marginal G10 outperformer on the day at the moment. JPY, CHF and CAD are all flat on the day vs the buck; USDJPY is pivoting either side of the 103.50 mark at the moment, with slightly softer than anticipated Japanese Industrial Production numbers leaving little impact. The news that BoJ policymakers are divided on how far they should go in examining yield curve control with some calling for a comprehensive review of the framework, according to summary of opinions voiced at the December rate review, has also done little to shift the dial (BoJ policy remains largely irrelevant for now). Meanwhile, USDCAD rangebound just below 1.2850 and USDCHF trades either side of the 0.8900 handle.
Coming Up
There are very little by way of notable economic releases today. Market volumes are likely to remain thin, given 1) UK markets are shut for bank holiday Monday and 2) many European and North American participants take the final trading week of the year off given Christmas and New Year celebrations. Low market depth implies that there is a risk of volatility.
With Brexit and US fiscal stimulus risks now out of the way, the path of the pandemic remains the main topic in focus; how do countries in Europe (UK and otherwise) deal with rapidly rising cases in the coming weeks after the likely acceleration in transmission over Christmas? How does the pandemic develop elsewhere? Any updates on the vaccine from (i.e. from Astra Zeneca/Oxford University)?
