The Nasdaq has staged a large correction to the downside after finding hard resistance just below the 13,400 area. At one point the leading US tech index was down by nearly 400 points.
Last week meme stocks stole the headlines and that’s where a majority of the gains were seen in the Nasdaq. The downside has so far been broad based in US stocks, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones suffering.
Traders no doubt have some apprehension ahead of the key risk event today, which is of course the US CPI report. This is likely to set the tone for the rest of the trading week for stocks.
In terms of how far the correction can go for the Nasdaq largely remains on the shoulders of the market fundamentals. However, technical analysis shows a clear path for either direction.
A move under the 12,900 area could spark a greater decline towards the 12,500-price area. On the flip side, if bulls manage to defend the 12,900 level, then we should expect an attack towards the 13,400 level again.
Traders sentiment towards the Nasdaq is still neutral. This probably points to the fact that we could see range trading ahead, rather than a clear breakout in any direction.
I think we could see the Nasdaq only starting to pick a clear direction once we see sentiment either rising significantly or falling significantly.
The Nasdaq index on the four-hour time frame and looks like it is making a perfect invalidation of a large head and shoulders pattern.
If the index manages to hold above the 12800 level, then technical analysis is highlighting that the index could see a major recovery towards the 14,800-resistance area.
The Nasdaq index is currently bearish in the medium-term despite the recent price correction. A move above the 14,000 level is needed to change the price trend.
The possibility for movement to the upside is however high probability. Bulls may need to break above 13,400 near-term resistance for any further gains to the upside.