This is arguably the most important week of the year for the US dollar, as the FOMC meeting concludes and we learn whether they are going to do a 50bps rate hike this month and give forward guidance that amounts to more than what the market has already priced in. If the Fed come out very hawkish, the market is also worried that it will induce a recession. If they don’t meet expectations, the market will be worried that inflation is going to run hotter for longer. The Fed need to reassure everyone that they are now doing the necessary measures to keep a soft landing and inflation under control. President Biden will need to see inflation come down soon and will be expecting the FOMC to do whatever it takes, in order for him to have a chance of retaining a majority vote come the mid-term elections.
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