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GBPNZD extended drop by -0.55% on Friday as bears dominate trend for 3 consecutive days. The downside move is currently targeting 1.8800 and a break below that could cause further selling pressure towards the 1.8550 a 3-year low. The EURGBP soared by +0.28% indicating a broad market weakness in the pound.
The UK GDP data released earlier on Friday indicated a shrink in the economy for the first time since the pandemic although it was better than markets anticipated. The GDP YoY Q2 dropped from 8.7% previous reading to 2.9% while the GDP QoQ Q2 data slumped from 0.8% to -0.1% underpinning pound strength in the near-term.
On the other hand, the deteriorating economic outlook includes a drop in Housing data as increased rate hikes trigger recession fears. The BoE hiked rates by 50 basis points to 1.75% from 1.25% a 6th hike in a row 2022, the biggest in 27 years. Investors will be paying close attention to GBP inflation print on August 17th expected to rise from 9.4% to 9.7%, the highest in 40-years.
The RBNZ is expected to hike rates from 2.50% to 3.00% next week, boosting the currency backed pair as investors price in the hawkish outlook.
Weekly Chart Analysis
The GBPNZD plunged below 1.9100, a 4-month support triggering selling pressure towards the 1.8800 near-term support. A bearish break below the near-term support at 1.8800 could reinforce the bearish outlook and the next critical target could be the 1.8550 level a 3-year low. The RSI indicator suggests that the pair has not bottomed yet as its reading trades below the 50.0 neutral level.
However a failure to break below the 1.8800 psychological support could see bulls attempt to price in a retracement towards the 1.9100 previous support-turned-resistance. Upside gains remain capped by the 50 and 200-day moving average currently at 1.9500 level.
ActivTrader sentiment tool indicate that 85% of retail traders bullish on the GBPNZD. The traders could be pricing in on a further tightening by the BoE as the UK economic data suggests that the figures are not as bad as expected. Buyers may be seeking a trend reversal above the 1.8800 bottom however a hawkish RBNZ could push prices lower on the near term.
Markets are pricing in a 50 basis points hike by the RBNZ on the 17th of August from 2.50% to 3.00%. The Friday New Zealand’s business NZ PMI data soared from 50.0 to 52.7 in July indicating expansion in the New Zealand economy boosting the New Zealand Dollar strength in the near term.
Daily Chart Analysis
The GBPNZD experienced a bearish breakout below the 1.9100 level as indicated by the Bollinger Band indicator and prices are currently trading towards the 1.8800 near-term support. The MACD indicator suggests that the pair capped by a bearish outlook as volume bars and moving averages broke below the benchmark 0.00 level. A break below the near-term support could cause further downward pressure towards the 1.86500 level.
However, price could face a near-term barrier at 1.8800 level and a near-term retracement could be experienced. Upside correction could face barriers at 1.8900 and 1.9000 near-term psychological levels.
