Фондовый рынок США завершил 2020 год на мажорный лад, и многие инвесторы ожидают, что эта «вечеринка» продолжится, несмотря на сочетания самого продолжительного бычьего и самого краткосрочного медвежьего рынков в недавнем прошлом.
При этом на сегодняшний день сохраняется множество рисков, среди которых возобновление пандемии коронавируса, обеспокоенность относительно скорости вакцинации населения по всему миру, а также важное голосование (5 января) в сенат США в штате Джорджия, после чего будет окончательно понятен баланс сил в Конгрессе. Тем не менее, многие инвесторы предпочитают игнорировать эти угрозы.
Как выразился старший управляющий инвестиционным портфелем Commonwealth Financial Network Питер Эсселе, считающий, что акции находятся на ранних стадиях многолетнего бычьего ралли:
Мы продолжим наблюдать рост.
На рынке опционов в январе ценообразование было более волатильно, чем месяцем ранее, вероятно, из-за выборов в Джорджии. Если республиканцы получат хотя бы одно место в Сенате, они сохранят незначительный перевес.
Если демократы возьмут верх во втором туре, палата будет разделена в пропорции 50 на 50, и решающее голосование достанется избранному вице-президенту Камале Харрис, что предоставит партии новоизбранного президента Джо Байдена полную власть над Конгрессом. Такая ситуация повышает вероятность реализации предложений по налоговой реформе, которые, как опасаются многие инвесторы, могут повредить ценам на акции.
Тем не менее, большинство инвесторов не ожидает резкого отката ведущих фондовых индексов в начале 2021 года. Декабрьский опрос управляющих фондами BofA Global Research оказался очень оптимистичным. По словам аналитиков, всемирная вакцинация населения против коронавируса, а также явная готовность Федеральной резервной системы США сохранять гибкость монетарной политики, придала инвесторам уверенности.


Действительно, ралли фондового рынка США за последние два месяца могло застать врасплох даже быков. Согласно опроса, проведенного в конце ноября, стратеги ожидали увидеть S&P500 к концу 2021 года на отметке 3900 пунктов, что стало бы очередным ежегодным ростом этого индекса.
В целом, 2020-й выдался достаточно бурным для Уолл-стрит. В течение прошлого года закончился самый продолжительный бычий рынок в истории, а когда рост рынка акций остановился из-за распространения COVID-19, и надежды на восстановление экономики не оправдались, возник краткосрочный медвежий рынок.
По информации Bespoke Investment Group, во время предыдущих бычьих рынков (когда S&P500 достиг своего предыдущего исторического максимума) за 26 месяцев, прежде чем достигнуть вершины, индекс показывал рост в среднем на 38%.
Некоторые инвесторы опасаются, что восстановление экономики от падения из-за COVID-19 может быть уже учтено в цене, а оценки бумаг могут быть растянутыми во времени. Тем не менее, инвесторы видят несколько сегментов рынка, в том числе финансовый, развлекательный, гостиничный и энергетический, обладающие потенциалом дальнейшего роста.
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