Уже всем очевидно, что текущий 2020 год американский фондовый рынок завершит с двузначной прибылью. Основными драйверами роста послужили успешная борьба с COVID-19 и ряд экономических потрясений. На этом новостном фоне многие инвесторы ожидают дальнейшего роста основных фондовых индексов США, хотя он вовсе не гарантирован.
Навряд ли кто-то из инвесторов включал пандемию в свой перечень рисков на 2020 год. Поэтому, учитывая то, что уже известно сейчас о вакцинах от COVID-19, траектории экономического восстановления и политическом ландшафте, можно составить свой примерный список основных проблем, с которыми мы можем столкнуться уже в 2021 году. Их важно знать, т.к. их реализация может, мягко говоря, снизить тот оптимистичный настрой, с которым инвесторы идут в Новый Год.
Риск №1. Проблемы с вакциной.
Практически все на рынке сходятся во мнении, что от успешного распространения вакцины будет зависеть динамика индекса S&P500 в течение всего следующего года. Не говоря уже о том, что оптимизм в отношении найденных вакцин, фактически, был ключевым фактором роста рынка акций за последний месяц. Большинство инвесторов буквально молятся на них, считая их основным драйвером долгосрочного восстановления американской экономики.
В качестве примера того, как информация о вакцине может повлиять на рынок можно привести динамику индекса S&P500 перед 9 ноября, когда его значения выросли более чем на 5% на информации от компании Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) и ее партнера BioNTech (NASD: BNTX) о высокой эффективности, найденной ими вакцины против COVID-19.
Однако такая зависимость фондового рынка от новостей о вакцине сделала его практически беззащитным перед негативной информацией. Большинство акций могут резко снизиться в цене, если повсеместное внедрение вакцины будет провалено, а ее производители, например, столкнуться с серьезными трудностями при ее производстве или транспортировке, учитывая необходимость использования сверхнизких температур.
По состоянию на понедельник (21 декабря) правительство Соединенных Штатов заключило с Pfizer договор о поставке 100 млн. доз сертифицированных вакцин. Компания обязуется выполнить данный договор до марта 2021 года. Аналогичный контракт был заключен и с американской биотехнологической компанией Moderna (MRNA) на поставку 200 млн. доз, разработанной ими вакцины.
Ожидается, что большая часть жителей стран с развитой рыночной экономикой будут вакцинированы к середине 2021 года. В то время как страны с развивающейся экономикой вакцинируют свое население к этому сроку примерно на половину.
Риск № 2. Итоги второго тура сенатских выборов в штате Джорджия.
У инвесторов резко портится настроение, когда они начинают задумываться о последствиях игры, затеянной Вашингтоном в отношении общих корпоративных налогов и налога на прибыль. Нынешний раскол в Сенате в соотношении 48 на 50 между демократами и республиканцами, оставляет за последними контроль над палатой, что послужит серьезным препятствием для любой «негативной для рынка» налоговой реформы, которую новоизбранный президент Джо Байден и Палата представителей демократов попытаются реализовать.
Досрочное голосование началось в понедельник (21 декабря), но эти внеочередные выборы завершатся не раньше 5 января. Несмотря на то, что это считается менее вероятным исходом, законодатели-демократы все же могут получить контроль над одним или двумя местами, тем самым изменив пропорции разделения правительства, которые большинство аналитиков и экспертов уже заложили в свои прогнозы по фондовому рынку на предстоящий год.
Аналитик из американской инвестиционной компании Oppenheimer Holdings так оценивает возможные последствия объединения правительства:
В случае объединения правительства США администрация Байдена могла бы существенно повысить налоги для многих американских корпораций, которые смогли извлечь выгоду из более низких налоговых ставок и благодаря этому повысить свою конкурентоспособность на международном рынке, повысить прибыльность, стимулировать инновации и укрепить балансы, а также способствовать росту новых рабочих мест (перед локдауном, вызванным пандемией).


Риск № 3: «Снижение ликвидности» и повышение процентных ставок.
Действие сверхнизких процентных ставок в 2020 году помогло поддержать компании, испытывающие трудности из-за последствий распространения коронавируса. В первую очередь эти предприятия получили ощутимую поддержку за счет снижения стоимости заимствований, в то время как инвесторы активно вкладывались в их акции в погоне за доходностью.
По оценке эксперта из JPMorgan Лакос-Бухаса, в средне- и долгосрочной перспективе гибкая стратегия денежно-кредитной политики Федеральной резервной системы и прочих центральных банков может принести пользу рынку акций:
Сокращение ликвидности, более высокие процентные ставки и угроза инфляции — ключевые среднесрочные и долгосрочные риски для американской экономики. Рекордная ликвидность центральных банков сыграла ключевую роль в поддержке акций, облегчая функционирование кредитного рынка и помогая восстанавливать баланс денежных средств во всех секторах экономики. Это помогло удержать на плаву как здоровые, так и маржинальные компании, а также финансировать новые развивающиеся проекты.
Тем не менее, Федеральная резервная система недавно сообщила о том, что процентные ставки, вероятно, останутся близкими к нулю по крайней мере до 2023 года, а ее текущая агрессивная стратегия выкупа активов будет действовать до тех пор, пока не будет достигнут «существенный прогресс» в период после ковидного восстановления экономики. При этом долгосрочные планы ФРС в отношении денежно-кредитной политики и любые сигналы о предстоящих ее изменениях, могут появиться уже в следующем году.
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