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Уже всем очевидно, что текущий 2020 год американский фондовый рынок завершит с двузначной прибылью. Основными драйверами роста послужили успешная борьба с COVID-19 и ряд экономических потрясений. На этом новостном фоне многие инвесторы ожидают дальнейшего роста основных фондовых индексов США, хотя он вовсе не гарантирован.
Навряд ли кто-то из инвесторов включал пандемию в свой перечень рисков на 2020 год. Поэтому, учитывая то, что уже известно сейчас о вакцинах от COVID-19, траектории экономического восстановления и политическом ландшафте, можно составить свой примерный список основных проблем, с которыми мы можем столкнуться уже в 2021 году. Их важно знать, т.к. их реализация может, мягко говоря, снизить тот оптимистичный настрой, с которым инвесторы идут в Новый Год.
Риск №1. Проблемы с вакциной.
Практически все на рынке сходятся во мнении, что от успешного распространения вакцины будет зависеть динамика индекса S&P500 в течение всего следующего года. Не говоря уже о том, что оптимизм в отношении найденных вакцин, фактически, был ключевым фактором роста рынка акций за последний месяц. Большинство инвесторов буквально молятся на них, считая их основным драйвером долгосрочного восстановления американской экономики.
В качестве примера того, как информация о вакцине может повлиять на рынок можно привести динамику индекса S&P500 перед 9 ноября, когда его значения выросли более чем на 5% на информации от компании Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) и ее партнера BioNTech (NASD: BNTX) о высокой эффективности, найденной ими вакцины против COVID-19.
Однако такая зависимость фондового рынка от новостей о вакцине сделала его практически беззащитным перед негативной информацией. Большинство акций могут резко снизиться в цене, если повсеместное внедрение вакцины будет провалено, а ее производители, например, столкнуться с серьезными трудностями при ее производстве или транспортировке, учитывая необходимость использования сверхнизких температур.
По состоянию на понедельник (21 декабря) правительство Соединенных Штатов заключило с Pfizer договор о поставке 100 млн. доз сертифицированных вакцин. Компания обязуется выполнить данный договор до марта 2021 года. Аналогичный контракт был заключен и с американской биотехнологической компанией Moderna (MRNA) на поставку 200 млн. доз, разработанной ими вакцины.
Ожидается, что большая часть жителей стран с развитой рыночной экономикой будут вакцинированы к середине 2021 года. В то время как страны с развивающейся экономикой вакцинируют свое население к этому сроку примерно на половину.
Риск № 2. Итоги второго тура сенатских выборов в штате Джорджия.
У инвесторов резко портится настроение, когда они начинают задумываться о последствиях игры, затеянной Вашингтоном в отношении общих корпоративных налогов и налога на прибыль. Нынешний раскол в Сенате в соотношении 48 на 50 между демократами и республиканцами, оставляет за последними контроль над палатой, что послужит серьезным препятствием для любой «негативной для рынка» налоговой реформы, которую новоизбранный президент Джо Байден и Палата представителей демократов попытаются реализовать.
Досрочное голосование началось в понедельник (21 декабря), но эти внеочередные выборы завершатся не раньше 5 января. Несмотря на то, что это считается менее вероятным исходом, законодатели-демократы все же могут получить контроль над одним или двумя местами, тем самым изменив пропорции разделения правительства, которые большинство аналитиков и экспертов уже заложили в свои прогнозы по фондовому рынку на предстоящий год.
Аналитик из американской инвестиционной компании Oppenheimer Holdings так оценивает возможные последствия объединения правительства:
В случае объединения правительства США администрация Байдена могла бы существенно повысить налоги для многих американских корпораций, которые смогли извлечь выгоду из более низких налоговых ставок и благодаря этому повысить свою конкурентоспособность на международном рынке, повысить прибыльность, стимулировать инновации и укрепить балансы, а также способствовать росту новых рабочих мест (перед локдауном, вызванным пандемией).
Риск № 3: «Снижение ликвидности» и повышение процентных ставок.
Действие сверхнизких процентных ставок в 2020 году помогло поддержать компании, испытывающие трудности из-за последствий распространения коронавируса. В первую очередь эти предприятия получили ощутимую поддержку за счет снижения стоимости заимствований, в то время как инвесторы активно вкладывались в их акции в погоне за доходностью.
По оценке эксперта из JPMorgan Лакос-Бухаса, в средне- и долгосрочной перспективе гибкая стратегия денежно-кредитной политики Федеральной резервной системы и прочих центральных банков может принести пользу рынку акций:
Сокращение ликвидности, более высокие процентные ставки и угроза инфляции — ключевые среднесрочные и долгосрочные риски для американской экономики. Рекордная ликвидность центральных банков сыграла ключевую роль в поддержке акций, облегчая функционирование кредитного рынка и помогая восстанавливать баланс денежных средств во всех секторах экономики. Это помогло удержать на плаву как здоровые, так и маржинальные компании, а также финансировать новые развивающиеся проекты.
Тем не менее, Федеральная резервная система недавно сообщила о том, что процентные ставки, вероятно, останутся близкими к нулю по крайней мере до 2023 года, а ее текущая агрессивная стратегия выкупа активов будет действовать до тех пор, пока не будет достигнут «существенный прогресс» в период после ковидного восстановления экономики. При этом долгосрочные планы ФРС в отношении денежно-кредитной политики и любые сигналы о предстоящих ее изменениях, могут появиться уже в следующем году.
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вЂMedicinal mushrooms’ are also known as вЂmagic mushrooms.’ It’s terminology is used to describe mushrooms with natural, active ingredients (hallucinogens), such as Psilocybin and Psilocin. Psilocybin is not the active drug in magic mushrooms. It is what’s known as a prodrug: A biologically inactive compound that can be metabolized by the body to produce an active drug. If you consume magic mushrooms, psilocybin is metabolized into psilocin. If you plan to use them within 5-10 days, fresh shrooms or truffles can be stored in the fridge in a brown paper bag. However, if you’re planning to store them any longer, you’ll have to dry them out. “You start realizing that you can’t smell things that you normally would,” said Dustin, who asked that his last name be withheld for privacy reasons. https://sdcllp.com/community/profile/ernielatrobe135/ For the three women I spoke with, there certainly seems to be common ground when it comes to their motives for microdosing; Bea was seeing a therapist «but was becoming more depressed». She was completely against antidepressants after seeing family members «become hooked on various pharmaceuticals», and was «categorically against going down that route». Amber was also in a «pretty bad depression funk», where she was finding everything «dull and uninteresting». Chelsey was looking for a way to «clear her mental fog». 2. Adults over 55, who microdosed with psilocybin mushrooms in the Stamets Stack showed the largest (about 40%) increases in total number of taps after about one month relative to non-microdosers and those that microdose psilocybin alone. Microdosing isn’t exactly a mainstream hobby yet, but it’s certainly edging a little bit closer to the center of the zeitgeist every single year. We took at look at what microdosing does to your body, and how its increasing popularity is impacting the laws around psychedelics in general.
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