It has been a generally quite morning thus far, with the main story being crashes across multiple of the world’s most high traffic websites/important websites, which is thought to originate from an outage at Fastly, a website cloud provider. The news triggered some selling in risk assets at the time, though the losses were short-lived; E-mini S&P 500 futures dropped momentarily under 4220 but have quickly reversed back to the north of the 4230 level to trade close to recent highs. On the day, US index futures trade with a modestly positive bias (S&P 500 futures +0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures +0.4%), probably deriving some support from an ongoing pullback in US government bond yields; 10-year yields have dropped to 1.55% this morning, their lowest in about a month. Amid the broad lack of catalysts, it seems market continue to trade on last Friday’s US jobs report, which seems to have underpinned expectations for Fed patience with regards to the removal of its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, which is a long-run positive for stocks and, at least in the medium-term, is a positive for bonds also (hence the lower yields).
In terms of commodities, crude oil prices are trading with a negative bias this morning, as the modest pull-back from recent cycle highs continues. WTI is now trading in the mid-$68.00s having pulled back from fresh annual highs just under $70.00 earlier in the week, down about 1.0% on the session, while Brent is trading in the mid-$70.00s, having pulled back from recent highs just above $72.00. Despite modest recent losses, however, it seems as though positive momentum for now remains intact, and the crude complex seems likely to remain supported going forward as long as the global oil demand recovery story/narrative remains intact, which it seems likely it will. The biggest uncertainty is the return of Iranian supply, and thus traders should keep a keen eye on how US/Iran nuclear deal negotiations are progressing.
Turning to precious metals; spot gold is flat this morning as it swings either side of the $1900 level whilst spot silver swings either side of its 21DMA close to $27.75, with both caught between the positive impulse of a continued pullback in US yields and the negative influence of a slightly stronger US dollar. On which note, the DXY has managed to reclaim the 90.00 level again after slipping below it yesterday and seems for now content to consolidate close to its 21DMA, which currently sits at 90.09. Things should spice up for the dollar, and for market more broadly in general, later in the week with the release of key US data in the form of the May CPI report, whilst some central bank action (ECB and BoC) could also get things moving.
Sticking with FX, GBP is a slight underperformer following recent reports suggesting that the next stage of lockdown easing in the UK will be pushed back between two weeks and one month (virtually all restrictions were previously expected to have been removed by the 21st of June 2021). Tensions between the UK and EU over the Northern Ireland protocol, which could result in the EU imposing sanctions on the UK, are also touted as weighing on sterling. The losses incurred by GBPUSD are not catastrophic, however, with the pair down a modest 0.2% on the session and trading in the mid-1.4100s still, well within recent ranges. NZD and JPY are also underperforming, both also down about 0.2% on the day versus the dollar, pushing NZDUSD back towards 0.7200 (though it remains supported above this level for now) and USDJPY back from yesterday’s 109.20 lows back towards 109.50. Neither seem to be being influenced by domestic fundamental catalysts, rather, they just seem to be falling victim of the buck’s modest recovery this morning.
EUR, CAD and AUD are all relatively flat this morning versus the buck. The euro largely ignored this morning’s Eurozone data; for reference, Q1 GDP growth for the Eurozone was revised a little higher, but the German ZEW survey for June was a little weaker than expected, though analysts have pointed out that forward looking commentary in the report was constructive. EURUSD is currently flat trading just under 1.2200, USDCAD is flat and still trading within recent ranges around 1.2075 and AUDUSD remains well supported in the 0.7750 region. NOK and CHF are modest outperformers this morning, with the former shrugging off weaker crude oil prices given an upbeat Norges Bank survey released this morning, which underpins expectations for the bank to be the first in the G10 to start normalising interest rates.
The Day Ahead
A few interesting data points are set for release this Tuesday; US and Canadian export data, both for the month of April and both set for release at 1330BST could turn some heads and potentially result in some FX market chop, particularly in USDCAD. Then outgoing BoE member Haldane is likely to continue to fire parting shots at the bank’s current monetary policy stance in a speech at 1400BST, though given he is soon to leave, will likely be ignored. US JOLTs Job Opening data for the month of April is out at 1500BST and could catch some eyes, though is very backward looking compared to other labour market gauges (like the official jobs report or weekly jobless claims data). Crude oil traders will be on notice for the release of the US Energy Information Agency’s monthly oil market report (called the Short-term Energy Outlook or STEO) and the release of weekly Private API crude oil inventory numbers this evening.