Market Wrap – Stocks Surge

Stock market appeared to like the US May Non-farm payrolls number as 339,000 against the 190,000 expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 500 points higher.

European stock markets also cheered the numbers, with Stoxx 600 closing up +1.5% and the UK FTSE 100 +1.6%. In Germany, the German DAX closed +1.3% higher.

Elsewhere across Europe the French CAC gained +2.0% alongside the Italy MIB +2.0% and the Spanish IBEX end the session +1.7% higher.

The market continued to digest the jobs report. CIBC noted that the household survey tends to be more volatile and less reliable month-to-month and the 310,000 drops in jobs was a stark contrast to the establishment survey at +339,000.

However, year-to-date comparisons suggest the household survey has added 1.9 million jobs compared to 1.6 million in the payroll report, indicating the May report could be a correction for previous over-reporting.

The total participation rate remained constant, while the prime-age participation rate exceeded its pre-pandemic peak. They say the latter trend may persist as Americans with depleted savings and affected by inflation might be prompted to seek income.

In a separate note, BMO highlighted that any time the unemployment rate rises 0.3 percentage points from the low, it tends to rise a further 1.5-3.0 percentage points.

Fed watcher Nick Timiraos also published his take of the report on the Wall Street Journal. He noted that Friday’s jobs report does little to clarify the Federal Reserve’s debate over whether to hold rates steady this month.

But it underscores the prospect that, if officials do so, they could favour raising rates later this summer. He notes that those who already favoured a rate rise in June are likely to be more convinced of the need while those who want time to assess could still lean towards skipping a June hike.