The euro currency incurred a big rejection from the 1.2100 resistance level against the US dollar yesterday, following a rise in the United States Treasury yields and another big pullback in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indices.
Weaker-than-expected private-sector jobs data from the US economy, and a sub-par ISM services report caused traders to sell the euro and other riskier currencies. This reminded traders that last week’s theme of rising bond yields and US dollar strength is still ever present inside the markets psyche.
The euro currency had earlier received a nudge higher from bullish commentary out of ECB member Palleta, who insisted that the central bank would not be adjusting monetary policy because bond yields were on the rise globally.
Look ahead, the US dollar index is going to be the final piece of the puzzle for EURUSD bears. The US dollar index failed to crack the February high on Tuesday, which caused a large amount of technical US dollar selling.
Sellers will need to move past the extremely important 91.38 to 91.50 price zone to encourage the notion that the EURUSD pair can indeed move into a much lower price range, and finally avoid the extremely choppy range bound conditions between 1.2000 and 1.2200.
It is encouraging that a new weekly low was made, and if the 1.2100 level continues to cap rallies then the EURUSD pair is now making lower highs and lower lows on a weekly basis, which is what bears want to see.
Putting it all together, sellers need to hold the EURUSD pair below the 1.2000 level, and the US dollar index also needs to hold above 91.50. If this scenario occurs, expect big technical selling. If not, then expect the EURUSD pair to drift back towards the top of its short-term trading range yet again.
Looking at retail sentiment a neutral sentiment bias is in place according to the excellent ActivTrader market sentiment tool. This may suggest that range-bound trading is going to persist, and now may not be the best time to take a medium-term position.
EURUSD Short-Term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame shows that an inverted head and shoulders pattern has formed, following the recent rally towards the 1.2100 level. The pattern is projecting another run towards the 1.2200 level.
Watch out for more strength in the EURUSD pair if bulls crack the 1.2100 handle in the short-term. Key resistance on the way to 1.2200 is located at the 1.2140 and 1.2170 levels.
Traders that are bearish towards the EURUSD pair in the short-term may look to sell sustained weakness under the 1.2000 support level in expectations of a big directional down move.
Source By ActivTrader.
EURUSD Medium-Term Technical Analysis
Looking at the daily time chart, a large head and shoulders and a rising wedge pattern are both visible. These are both bearish reversal patterns, which seems to be a negative for the EURUSD over the medium-term.
Sellers need to hold the price under the 1.2060 level to activate the head and shoulders, while the wedge breakout remain valid while the price trades under the 1.2090 resistance zone.
Overall, plenty of negative medium-term signs are emerging while the pair remains capped below the 1.2100 level. The 1.1860 and 1.1600 levels remain the key medium-term targets.
Source By ActivTrader.