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Market Wrap
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WTI trading between $72.50 and $73.00 is the highest it has been since October 2018. The market is bullish energy, and some are calling for $100 per barrel prices in 2022 on robust demand and on the basis that OPEC+ is planning gradual increases of oil output from August on top of what has been done in previous meetings. Iraq and Iran are likely to add up to 2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2021. Nat gas was up 10% today and is retracing a move off the high after a brief consolidation period.
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The British pound has proven resilient at these prices with 1.3850 acting as support today. The daily range is now trading above yesterday’s bullish turn around and a lower US dollar could be useful for those looking for 1.4000 or above on GBPUSD. With 68% of traders on the ActivTrader platform bullish the pair, I am starting to think we should be looking for a short at the next level of resistance.
The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) data today showed UK manufacturing output volumes in the three months to June grew at the fastest pace on record (since 1975), according to the latest monthly CBI Industrial Trends Survey. UK manufacturing output volumes in the three months to June grew at the swiftest pace on record, with expectations of further expansion for the remaining year.
US Existing home sales dropped for the 4th consecutive month to 5.8 million in May of 2021, compared to a consensus expectation of 5.72 million.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded slightly higher today but stopped short of trading above the 50-period exponential moving average as traders await Fed Chair testimony before the House Select Subcommittee on pandemic aid. Powell will reiterate that the inflation seen would prove temporary and that the central bank will continue its supportive stance to the economy. It will be interesting to see whether under interrogation he lets more forward guidance slip.
