Midday Update
The USDCAD rebounded from a 5-months low as Fed members boosted the dollar by pursuing a more hawkish stance on interest rate policy. The pair extended gains back into a 5-month range between 1.24500 and 1.29500 high.
The US dollar is currently trading above a 2-week high against the Canadian dollar as falling energy prices continue to underpin the CAD strength. The BoC is expected to also increase its interest rates by 50bps at the next meeting on April 13.
The US government pledged to supply up to 180 million barrels of oil in the next 6 months while its allies indicated a possible 120 million barrels from their strategic reserves to curb rising energy prices.
The markets will focus on Canadian Employment Change and the unemployment rate for March. The US will also release the WASDE report and Oil Rig Count statistics later in the New York Session.
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The USDCAD rallied for 2 straight days after bouncing off the 1.24500 support, a 5-month low. The bulls face a near-term resistance at 1.26500 which coincides with a 50-day moving average. A break above the 1.26500 may see bulls attempting to regain the 1.2900 near-term resistance
A failure to break above the 1.26500 may cause further downside pressure on the pair towards the 1.24500 low. A break below that support may open room for a further downside target towards 1.2300 and 1.20500 support, 7 years low.
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The USDCAD bulls are currently capped below the 1.2600 psychological resistance and a failure to break above that area may see the pair retreating to 1.25500 previous resistance turned support.
However, a breach of the 1.26000 resistance may inspire bullish interests in targeting the 1.2700 near-term psychological barriers. The trend is currently bullish as USDCAD crossed a critical 50-day moving average to the upside and a failure to hold the 1.2525 area may invalidate the bullish outlook in the near term.
The outcome of the BoC will play a big role in the direction of the USDCAD in the near term.
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