Майкл Берри, инвестор, прославившийся благодаря фильму «Игра на понижение», сделавший миллиарды, на ставках против ипотечных ценных бумаг во время финансового кризиса 2008 года, занял огромную короткую позицию в Tesla. Согласно опубликованной вчера форме SEC 13F , Берри, через его фонд Scion Asset Management, приобрел пут опционы, покрывающие 800 тыс. акций TSLA. Его ставка условно эквивалентна 534 миллионам долларов по состоянию на 31 марта, что делает эту позицию крупнейшей в портфеле Scion, равной около 40% всего портфеля в номинальном выражении.
Невозможно узнать, когда фонд Майкла Берри сделал ставку против Tesla, но можно точно предположить, что сейчас эта позиция приносит прибыль.
Что происходит с Tesla?


Несмотря на то, что Tesla получила рекордную прибыль в первом квартале, избежала дефицита чипов в отрасли, улучшила производство и даже заработала на биткойнах, ее акции все равно снижаются. Акции Tesla упали на 35% по сравнению с пиком 26 января, из-за чего Илон Маск опустился на третье место в рейтинге самых богатых людей мира. Годовое ралли, поднявшее акции почти на 700%, закончилось, во всяком случае пока.
Ожидание ужесточения монетарной политики Федеральной резервной системой США перевело внимание инвесторов на стоимостные акции. Мы также стали свидетелями шквала негативных новостей для Tesla, в частности, о планах приостановить производство в Шанхае, протестах в китайских социальных сетях, снижении поставок электрокаров в апреле (по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем) и негодовании аналитиков из-за того, что Tesla не предоставила конкретного прогноза поставок автомобилей в 2021 году. Итог: настроение рынка плохое.
Техническая картина
Акции Tesla пробили ключевую трендовую линию на дневном графике 10 мая, цена также закрылась ниже 200-дневной скользящей средней, хотя это пока неубедительно. Возникает вопрос, увидим ли мы аналогичную ситуацию, как в марте 2020 года, когда 200-дневная средняя оказывала поддержку. Если покупатели действительно вступят в игру, особенно на повышенном объеме, то это можно использовать для открытия длинной свинг позиции с целью в области 630-640 долларов. А наличие больших продавцов в акции в таком случае может послужить причиной шорт сквиза и быстрого отскока.


Если же 200-дневная скользящая средняя будет окончательно пройдена продавцами, то движение вниз может быть сильным, поскольку ниже 200-дневной скользящей обычно ничего хорошего не происходит. Пробой 560-550 долларов и цена Tesla продолжит снижение к 500 и 460-450 долларам на мой взгляд.
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