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The US dollar staged a huge rebound against the Japanese yen currency last week, with the pair gaining close to 200 points from the lows of last week. Going into this week the technical surrounding the USDJPY pair are extremely bullish and pointing to a possible rally towards the 108.60 level.
An almost perfect storm has engulfed the USDJPY pair, with the US dollar rising and safe-haven currencies being sold against the greenback due to the notion that the US economy is back on-track and the reflation trade is here to stay.
The USDJPY pair has struggled to break above the 106.00 handle since October of last year, but now this key technical benchmark has been surpassed the USDJPY pair looks set to carve out a new, and much-higher trading range.
Looking at the path ahead, the USDJPY pair has limited resistance until the 108.60 area if bulls can crack the 107.00 resistance level this week. Much will depend on the US economic data points and the moves in the US bond market.
Should we continue to see US economic data points this week surprised to the upside, then more gains are likely for the US dollar. Safe haven currencies are likely to be sold again. Even the correlation between weak stocks and Japanese yen demand is starting to look shaky.
The strong ISM report from the US economy this week has already provided a positive start for the US dollar. This trading theme looks set to stay in place all the while that US data continues to come in hot. The ADP jobs report and US weekly jobs data are the next risk events to watch ahead of Friday’s monthly jobs report.
According to the ActivTrader Market Sentiment tool some 56% of traders are bearish towards the USDJPY pair. The bearish skew is not noteworthy at this stage, as the number of traders on the wrong side of this move is still rather small.
If the bearish sentiment bias continues to rise while the price rises then I would expect that the breakout in the USDJPY to accelerate here and take out some big psychological numbers like 107.00 and 108.00.
USDJPY Short-Term Technical Analysis
Technical analysis on the four-hour time frame shows that the USDJPY pair is extremely bullish in the near-term, after buyers activated a large, inverted head and shoulders pattern, following the recent move above the 106.00 handle.
According to the size of the bullish price pattern the USDJPY pair could be rally towards the 108.60 level, and possibly the 109.50 area.
Only a move below the 106.00 and then the 105.60 level would put the ongoing uptrend in the USDJPY into question. The 105.00 level is the ultimate support level to watch and remains a key level that must be defended.
Source by ActivTrader.
USDJPY Medium-Term Technical Analysis
The daily time frame looks increasing bullish, following a breakout from a broadening descending wedge pattern, between the 106.50 and 102.50 level. The overall size of the pattern indicates a coming medium-term move towards the 110.00, and possibly the 112.00 level.
Broadening descending wedge patterns are amongst the most powerful bullish reversal patterns, and have a high probability in playing out, and often market trend reversal.
Additionally, they tend to overshoot upside targets. Overall, expect fireworks to the upside while the USDJPY pair trades above the 106.50 level, and bulls defend the 106.00 support area.
Source by ActivTrader.
