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Market Brief
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The British pound versus the US dollar is sat in a trading range between 1.4100 to 1.4200 and nothing seems to be able to get it to budge. Yesterday we had higher inflation as seen in US CPI, today the UK GDP Estimates say the UK economy grew by 1.5% in the first quarter of 2021, with an estimated year-on-year rise of 27.60% which reflects the base effects from the economic collapse in 2020. The pound has started the London session on the back foot against the major crosses apart from the Japanese yen which is just holding its head up 0.07%, but basically flat for the day so far. UK Manufacturing came in under expectations for April with a negative -0.3% print versus expectations of 1.5% and below the previous months reading of 2.1%, which was also the case for UK industrial output and construction.
There is not a lot more market-moving data due in the morning, so a lot of headlines driven trades may occur as the G-7 Summit is taking place in the UK currently, plus US President Biden is set to do a tour of Europe and also visit Russia.
In the US session, we receive data from the University of Michigan which is forecast to show improvements across sentiment, and inflation expectations.
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The FTSE 100 is showing positive signs trading above the last 22 day’s trading range and could be attempting a new 2021 high if we can get above the 7139 level today. The long-term trend indicators are all pointing higher, with support between the daily 50 and 200 exponential moving average also in line with the Ichimoku cloud. A close below the daily 50 ema would be a signal of possible further downside but in the past, the cloud support has held.
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The USDJPY is still trading within a neat rising trend channel, with the lower bound confluent with the 109.18 and the previous swing low, so if that were to give up those prices today, that would be a bearish reversal signal. The 200 ema is trading around 107.50, so at least 200 pips lower than where the price action is currently.
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The Bulls are still in control as traders initially sold the news around the Iranian oil official announcement, but that got quickly got bought up to the week’s highs. A close above the $70 per barrel today would be the highest weekly close in nearly 3 years. We do have the rig count today from the Baker Hughes data which may add some support to the weeks closing prices.
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Gold found support yesterday at the daily 20 ema once again, and this dynamic trend line is proving to be a great buy the dip signal. The 20, 50 and 200 daily ema’s are all stacked higher and the 200 is curling up, showing sustained upward momentum is within the yellow metal prices. Getting above and making a weekly close of $1900/oz would set up next week very well for those that are currently long into the weekend.
