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Forex Analysis
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When I am trading the pound, I often keep the trades to the GBPUSD or GBPJPY as they tend to have the smallest spreads and the biggest propensity to move 50 pips or more. Making them ideal for day trading and swing trading.
After today’s relatively good UK PMI data we saw the pound bounce from the intraday London session lows with the GBPUSD finding support at 1.21800 and the GBPJPY finding support at 164.823.
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The bounce in the GBPJPY caught my eye the most as it was confluent with the closing price from the previous Friday and off the balance areas that formed during Mondays opening range. This led me to look at the relationship to Fridays close on the GBPUSD and current price action, which in the chart above is showing that closing level is currently acting as resistance. The GBPUSD has traded below the 1.2220 level twice now as price action has been between Tuesdays high and Wednesdays low, which in themselves was an expansion of Mondays range. Keeping these levels on as we go into the US session and the US PMI data release will guide traders into whether the GBPUSD is likely to remain range bound or if the market makers and traders are going to have to reprice higher or lower into Thursdays close.
If the GBPJPY can hold above 164.80 I will be long biased on the pound crosses. A trade below that level and I will be looking for Mondays lows to be taken and a larger decline to ensue.
UK manufacturing production has eased to its lowest level since February 2021, and Japan’s factory activity has slowed as June’s flash PMI data shows the weakest expansion since February 2022.
If we get a decent figure from the US this afternoon, it may tip the balance. Currently expectations are that the US manufacturing data comes in worse than May’s reading but still relatively high at 56.0, whereas services PMI is slightly better.
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The US dollar index started the week with a small range due to the bank holiday in the USA. Yesterday’s price action essentially expanded the range and todays rise in the dollar has again, returned price action to Fridays close. This is where we are likely to stay, until we get the PMI data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. A break above the Wednesday high or below yesterday’s lows, would be the indication of the moves I expect to carry on for the next couple of sessions.
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The USDJPY has been in a major uptrend on the higher time frames for a long time. Currently, the price action is back with Monday’s range, with the high of Monday acting as support. Price action has been dropping since making a high on Tuesday, so a push though Fridays closing price around 135.00 and I would be expecting to see the bears take control for the rest of the week and for a push lower back into the 130’s possibly mid-120’s to be the markets next move.
Recession fears are growing, and we are likely to see flows into the safe havens of Bonds, and the yen. Dropping oil prices are also going to help bolster the support for the yen and Brent is currently teetering on a fall through a major trend line.
