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Market Brief
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Sometimes it is a case of buy the rumour sell the news and the New Zealand data today and subsequent moves in the NZDUSD could be just that.
In the overnight session New Zealand raised their Official Cash Rate for the first-time in 7 Years. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBZ) raised its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 0.5% during its October meeting in line with market expectations.
In the RBNZ monetary statement they said. “The level of global economic activity has continued to recover, supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal settings, and rising vaccination rates enabling a relaxation of mobility restrictions.” They noted that economic uncertainty remains due to COVID-19 and that price increases are becoming more persistent. “While the economy contracted sharply during the recent nationwide health-related lockdown, household and business balance sheet strength, ongoing fiscal policy support, and strong terms of trade provide confidence that economic activity will recover quickly as alert level restrictions ease.”
New Zealand’s CPI inflation is likely to increase above 4% in the near term though the RBNZ expect a move back towards the 2% midpoint over the medium term. “At this time, measures of core inflation and medium-term inflation expectations remain close to 2%”.
The NZDUSD chart shows that the pivotal 0.6980 proved to be too much resistance once again and the NZDUSD sold off following the RBNZ announcement. This is more likely to do with the US dollar than it is the RBNZ rate decision today. Expectations will be on the Fed to follow the RBNZ and start their rate hike cycle.
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The price of oil has risen to its highest level in the past seven years. WTI crude futures increased almost 1% to near $80 a barrel today, marking a 5th consecutive day of gains and drifting above levels last seen in November 2014. Last nights American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that crude inventories in the US increased by 951,000 barrels during the week ending October 1. Cushing, Oklahoma, increased its oil reserves by 1.9 million barrels.
Additionally, gas stocks in the US have grown by 3.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks have grown by 345,000 barrels. The recent data is pointing towards a lack of demand so this rally in energy commodities may be about to get a headwind if resistance soon.
Manufacturing orders in Germany decreased in August. Following two months of robust growth in August, factory orders in Germany plummeted 7.7% mom last month, falling far short of estimates for a 2.1% drop.
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This data point caused the EURUSD to drop below recent intraday support and the 1.1560 level and now we’re waiting to see if that was a sweep of the lows at the London open or whether the euro traders are going to target the 1.1500 level. The drop in the single currency has been a major factor in the US dollar rising so swiftly today, which in turn could cap the oil prices in the coming sessions.
