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On the dollar index (DXY) the $92 price level has been rejected a few times now and it is hard to see a catalyst that would push the Greenback through this 2020 support now resistance area. March 2021 has seen the DXY attempt to continue an impulsive run from the February dip but now the price action is losing momentum to the upside and the daily 200 exponential moving average is slowly drifting down to meet the price.
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The US dollar versus an emerging market currency like the Turkish lira is extremely bullish and recent price action has been reflected in the safe-haven currencies and especially against the Japanese yen. However, the move by President Erdogan to replace the CBRT Governor Agbal was initially good for the US dollar and bad for the Turkish Lira but that move looks likely to be unwound over the course of the next few hours maybe days. The US dollar had been depreciating against the Turkish Lira for the best part of 5 months until a bullish correction in February. The sentiment indicator on the ActiveTrader platform is at the extremes with 97% of traders bearish the USDTRY.
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The USDJPY is also bearish in terms of sentiment with 72% of traders betting on the yen to appreciate having been in a decline since the start of 2021. The USDJPY has found the June 2020 supply zone to be acting as sticky resistance and any bullish moves into the 109.00 price levels are currently being rejected. On the daily time frame, the price action is very extended to the upside when compared with the 200ema, and that key support is found back down towards 105.70-105.80, though there may be a little supportive structure in the price action around 106.50 should we get a decent sell-off to find value.
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The EURUSD is looking like the inverse of the US dollar index as we should expect, so if we see US dollar prices falling, we should anticipate the 2020 resistance levels of 1.1900-1.1920 to now be acting as support.
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On the Daily time frame, the 200ema has proven to be adding to the confluence of support levels so any meaningful close below that may be the trigger we need to see for lower prices. The sentiment is to the bullish side of the sliding scale with 2/3 of traders wanting to see the move from January 2021 to the present-day as just a bull trend corrective moves lower.
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The double top on the H1 chart would make for a great target for the bulls to see if they can take the liquidity resting there for a move back up to 1.2100 or above. On the H1 chart, the 200ema is going to act as the first line of resistance and we still have a high probability of testing towards the swing lows from March 2021 if the bulls do not step in soon.
