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Market Wrap
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Global equities tumbled today as Russian forces were seen moving away from the Ukrainian capital and the Chernobyl nuclear plant site. The emphasis for the Russian army is likely to be on the Eastern regions which have been contested since 2014. Tomorrow we also have the NFP data and today is the last day of trading in March, so the rebalancing, hedging etc. will be influencing the price action. The S&P500 had been travelling in a relatively neat channel, and it looks like we should expect this to break to the downside in the coming sessions. The Nasdaq futures have found the 15,000 level to be a strong magnet.
The scheduled news today included the US Bureau of Economic Analysis report that showed personal spending in the United States expanded by less than expected by 0.2% or $34.9 billion in February. Personal income increased by 0.5% or $101.5 billion in the same period, while disposable personal income (DPI) grew by 0.4% or $76.1 billion.
The weekly Initial jobless claims in the United States increased by 14,000 to 202,000 in the week ending March 26 of 2022. The 4-week moving average was 208,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
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As part of its plans for the next six months, US President Joe Biden said the US will release 1 million barrels of oil per day and urged other countries to do the same. Biden said the US production of oil is expected to rise by 1 million barrels per day this year, and by nearly 700,000 barrels per day next year. He called on Congress to levy fees on unused wells and unused land to get companies to increase production. Something his critics will say is going against the Build Back Better green initiatives. With that in mind he will also ask Congress to pass his plan for accelerating the shift to clean, domestically produced energy. The White House also said he would sign legislation to guarantee US production of critical materials for the transition.
The price of Brent fell today but we’re still within a couple of key levels. I am going to assume the market carries on lower so the first test of support will be the $101.93 which was tested a couple of days ago. Meaning there should be little buying left there and we should move on to test the swing low from mid-March.
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The GBPUSD is still trading sideways but has at least swept the low and high of the range. I am just now waiting to see which level can hold for a bigger move to occur. The longer the compression the more violent the expansion will be.
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I am still also of the view that the US dollar index is in a Bull flag, but this correction could carry on for a lot longer than just one more simple bounce off the lower bound. The worry is that we stay in this channel until the next FOMX meeting. The EURUSD will hopefully give us the catalysts needed to break out.
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Currently EURUSD has not been able to hold above the recent highs and has actually made a bearish corrective pattern. The troubles in Ukraine will add to the bearish sentiment around the euro crosses.
