Youtrading UK
Português Español русский
Register Login
  • Markets
  • Charts
  • Economic Calendar
  • World
  • Economy
  • Insights
  • About Us
No Result
View All Result
Youtrading UK
  • Markets
  • Charts
  • Economic Calendar
  • World
  • Economy
  • Insights
  • About Us
No Result
View All Result
Youtrading UK
No Result
View All Result

Oil prices drop due to geopolitical uncertainty

by Neville Hornsey
18 May 2022
in Markets
0
Oil prices drop due to geopolitical uncertainty
446
SHARES
13.2k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on WhatsApp

Market Wrap

For quite a while the USDJPY was moving lower or higher with the US 2-year treasury yields. This is a relationship that can diverge when the yen is being pushed by other forces other than the divergence in central bank monetary policy. The relationship is one that is broken when the price of energy should change direction as the Japanese economy is predominantly based on exports of physical goods, which require fuel to distribute them. Today the strength in the Japanese yen across the major currency crosses has brought the USDJPY lower by -0.88% and this morning’s high UK CPI reading helped the GBPJPY to drop by 1.54% today. The formal request by Finland and Sweden to join NATO will add to the geopolitical nightmare brewing in Eastern Ukraine but could also have ramifications in the energy markets. Turkey is currently blocking them from joining NATO due to the two countries supporting the Kurds, which Turkey see as terrorists. When a country joins NATO, it usually ends up having a US military presence stationed there or can be used by the USA to launch manoeuvres from. This means that if the USA were to go to war with another country, all NATO members would be pulled into a war that they may not even agree with. Similarly, if Russia were to be aggressive with Finland, the USA would be on hand to help out, which is what President Biden reiterated today.

See real-time quotes provided by our partner.

Brent has been trading within a $15 range since mid-April this year, and over the last week the USDJPY has become more correlated. Today the US EIA weekly crude data showed a much bigger draw on stocks as it came in -3.394million and below the expected build of 1.383million. Usually when there is a larger than expected draw on stocks this is a bullish sign for the price of energy as it generally means there is greater than expected demand. Whatever the reason for the sell-off in crude prices this is good news for the yen, but bad for USDJPY.

See real-time quotes provided by our partner.

The US dollar isn’t currently dropping against a basket of currencies as seen in the US dollar index (white), so the move in USDJPY is all about the yen.

The Swiss franc is also higher today after the SNB Chair Jordan said the bank is ready to intervene in the forex markets when necessary. Swiss inflation is on its way to surpass the SNB’s target, but the bank believes this will be temporary. Because the inflationary pressures are global the bank recognises that the franc is a safe haven and because of this they are using negative currency rates and interventions to help them meet their mandate.

The EU’s final CPI reading came in just below the analysts’ expectations in April at 7.4%. This is still the highest reading recorded and the European sentiment dropped which has helped to bring the EURUSD and European bourses lower this afternoon.

German 10-year yields are still a couple of % below that of the US benchmark and are trading near the recent highs.

See real-time quotes provided by our partner.

The DAX m30 chart shows the German index bouncing off the top of a channel at the 14200 level. I generally expect descending channels to break to the upside. Today’s high is at a similar level to that of May 5th, which means there is likely to be some stops resting there. If we don’t see the DAX break below the swing low that formed at the close of the 9th and the start of trading on the 10th of May, we should probably expect to see a reversal pattern around the 13,500 level. Tomorrow’s ECB monetary policy meeting accounts could be the catalyst.

See real-time quotes provided by our partner.

The GBPUSD dropped to the 38.2% but I still think we’re coming lower to the 50% which happens to be the high from Monday.

Tags: BrentCrude oilDXYEURUSDGBPUSDInflationInterest ratesUS 2-year YieldsUSDJPY
Previous Post

Will GBPUSD recover following the UK CPI?

Next Post

The FTSE continues within its corrective pattern

Next Post
Will the FTSE give up its weekly gains as commodity prices collapse?

The FTSE continues within its corrective pattern

CALL US

Categories
  • Commodities
  • Economy
  • Forex
  • Index
  • Insights
  • Markets
  • Opening of the Week
  • Sem categoria
  • Stocks
  • World

Site Map

  • Home
  • Markets
  • Charts
  • Economic Calendar
  • World
  • Economy
  • Insights
  • About Us
Português Español русский

A comprehensive website for traders, both experienced and new! Checkout our content and learn how to invest and speculate in the markets using margin traded products. Our team of educators has extensive experience and is here to help. Enjoy!

Follow us on social media

Risk Warning

All financial products traded on margin carry a high degree of risk to your capital. They are not suited to all investors, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved, and seek independent advice if necessary.

All Rights Reserved - YouTrading UK 2020

Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions
  • Home
  • My Academy
    • Register Now
    • Login
  • Markets
    • Opening of the Week
    • Stocks
    • Commodities
    • Forex
    • Index
  • Charts
  • Economic Calendar
  • Economy
  • World
  • Insights
  • About Us
No Result
View All Result

© 2020 YouTrading UK - Leaders in Trader Training.

We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
Do not sell my personal information.
Cookie settingsACCEPT
Manage consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
__cfduid1 monthThe cookie is used by cdn services like CloudFare to identify individual clients behind a shared IP address and apply security settings on a per-client basis. It does not correspond to any user ID in the web application and does not store any personally identifiable information.
_wpfuuid11 yearsThis cookie is used by the WPForms WordPress plugin. The cookie is used to allows the paid version of the plugin to connect entries by the same user and is used for some additional features like the Form Abandonment addon.
cf_use_obThis cookie is set by the provider Cloudflare content delivery network. This cookie is used for determining whether it should continue serving "Always Online" until the cookie expires.
cookielawinfo-checbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement1 yearThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Advertisement".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
CookieDurationDescription
YSCsessionThis cookies is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
CookieDurationDescription
_ga2 yearsThis cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors.
_gid1 dayThis cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the website is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages visted in an anonymous form.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
CookieDurationDescription
_fbp3 monthsThis cookie is set by Facebook to deliver advertisement when they are on Facebook or a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising after visiting this website.
fr3 monthsThe cookie is set by Facebook to show relevant advertisments to the users and measure and improve the advertisements. The cookie also tracks the behavior of the user across the web on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin.
IDE1 year 24 daysUsed by Google DoubleClick and stores information about how the user uses the website and any other advertisement before visiting the website. This is used to present users with ads that are relevant to them according to the user profile.
test_cookie15 minutesThis cookie is set by doubleclick.net. The purpose of the cookie is to determine if the user's browser supports cookies.
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE5 months 27 daysThis cookie is set by Youtube. Used to track the information of the embedded YouTube videos on a website.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
CookieDurationDescription
_gat_UA-42160853-21 minuteNo description
cf_ob_infoNo description
CONSENT16 years 8 months 3 days 6 hours 2 minutesNo description
SAVE & ACCEPT
Powered by CookieYes Logo