The New Zealand dollar is fell and then rose against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) board members decided to maintain the official cash rate (OCR) at 5.50% at its July monetary policy meeting, conforming to the market expectations.
It was a pause after the RBNZ enforced 12 rate hikes. The decision today was in line with market consensus. RBNZ Monetary Policy Review and official cash rate announcement was fairly dovish.
The board said that the level of interest rates was constraining spending and inflation pressures as required. It added that the OCR will need to stay at a restrictive level to bring inflation returns to the target range of 1 to 3% annually by H2 of 2024.
According to the Meeting Minutes RBNZ inflation is expected to continue to decline from its peak, and with it measures of inflation expectations. Core inflation is expected to decline as capacity constraints ease.
They Minutes also added that while employment is above its maximum sustainable level, there are signs of labour market pressures dissipating and vacancies declining.
Since the rate decision the NZDUSD pair has continued to rise after an initial tumble, and according to sentiment metrics we could see more heavy losses ahead for the New Zealand dollar.
According to the ActivTrader market sentiment tool some 36 percent of traders are bullish towards the NZDUSD pair. As we typically look to fade sentiment biases, this could mean the NZDUSD pair is set to continue higher.
It is worth mentioning that high levels of bearish sentiment suggest a classic contrarian sentiment trade is still in the making, so do be careful selling this pair at current level, especially since the recent rejection from the 0.6200 area.
NZDUSD Short-Term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame shows that a bullish bias is play as the NZDUSD pair has repeatedly struggled to move under the 0.6150 area, additionally a bullish pattern has formed.
Currently, the upside looks good, especially since the pair broke above the 0.6200 level. The size of the mentioned price pattern could take the NZDUSD pair towards the 0.6400 level.
NZDUSD Medium-Term Technical Analysis
The daily time frame shows that the pair looks to be bullish as it trades above its trend defining 200-day moving average, just above the 0.6150 price level.
According to technical analysis we could see more upside as the overall price trend is now bearish. The former low around the 0.6050 area is also an important support zone to watch.