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The New Zealand dollar is on the rise against the US dollar as gains in the commodity sector propels antipodean currencies back towards the best levels of the year so far. The current risk-on rally appears to have legs and could cause the NZDUSD pair to move into a new, and much-higher trading range.
Typically, when Asian markets and commodities are in bullish trend it translates into strong gains for the NZDUSD and AUDUSD pair’s. Ongoing weakness in the US dollar currency is also a big reason why the Kiwi is currently firming.
With the positive risk environment and the prospect of more US stimulus and ongoing support from the Federal Reserve the short and medium-term prospects for the NZDUSD pair look particularly good.
Attempting to fight the ongoing trend is unlikely to be a worthwhile endeavour. As stated when commodities are rallying the NZDUSD pair tends to benefit significantly. It would be better to positioned in-line with this trend, rather than fighting bullish tailwinds.
The only caveat I am going to throw is the upcoming policy meeting from the RBNZ. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand are widely tipped to strike a more neutral tone, and potentially talk down the ongoing strength in the New Zealand currency.
This outcome could cause the NZDUSD pair to correct somewhat lower, however, we cannot discount the fact that the New Zealand dollar could rally right up until the day of the policy meeting. This has happened many times before.
I should note that the current technicals surrounding the NZDUSD pair are compelling at the moment and suggest that a rally towards the 0.7600 level could be forthcoming. This scenario would help cement a massive bullish reversal pattern.
According to the ActivTrader market sentiment tool some 78 percent of traders are bearish towards the NZDUSD pair. Considering that the pair has seen strong appreciation, and is in a bullish trend, traders appear to be on the wrong side of the market.
The one-way negative skew towards the NZDUSD certainly hints of further gains ahead for this currency pair. Watch out for the nasty short squeeze to continue all the while that sentiment remains negative.
NZDUSD Short-Term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame shows that a bullish breakout has recently taken place from a large falling price channel. The recent move above the 0.7200 level has confirmed the breakout from the bullish pattern.
According to the overall size of the bullish falling price channel a coming rally towards the 0.7400 resistance level should be expected in the short-term horizon.
Source By ActivTrader.
Traders looking to fade any strength in the NZDUSD pair should beware, because a large, inverted head and shoulders pattern with a 300-point upside projection will form if the NZDUSD pair reaches the 0.7300 level.
NZDUSD Medium-Term Technical Analysis
Looking at the daily time chart it appears that the NZDUSD pair is on track to reach the April 2018 trading high, around the 0.7400 level, which will complete the structure of huge, inverted head and shoulders pattern
It is possible that the NZDUSD pair could overextend to the upside and reach the 0.7600 level. Major trendline resistance from the weekly time frame is also found around the 0.7600 level.
Source By ActivTrader.
Any technical pullback towards the 0.7200 level is likely to be seen as a major buying opportunity. Weakness under this area place the 0.7150 and 0.730 levels as the strongest forms of downside support.
