Financial markets remain in a tense mood ahead of the release of the Non-farm payrolls result. Traders will be looking closely at the headline number and the unemployment rate.
Ahead of the Non-farm payrolls result it could be a great time to look at how analysts at the major banking institution are currently thinking about the headline number and data inside the report.
Deutsche Bank have a slightly bearish take and note that “The headline consensus is at +190,000 with private at + 195,000. We expect the unemployment rate to stay at 3.5% but the consensus expects it to tick up to 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are expected by the street to dip from 5% to 4.7%.”
The French investment bank Society Générale are more bullish. Society Générale note that “For October, we expect NFP to rise by 300K, faster than the 263K reported in September.”
And that “Payrolls grew an average of 562,000 per month in 2021 and in the first half of 2022 they grew at a 444,000 pace. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.5%, but we view a further decline to 3.4% as highly likely very soon. With employment gains above a 150-175,000 range per month, there is pressure for the unemployment rate to drop. We estimate the 150-175K,000 pace as representing growth in the working-age population.”
United States investment Citibank said they expect “US October Nonfarm Payrolls at 170,000, prior: 288,000, and Average Hourly Earnings month on month –0.4%.”
Citi: expect the Unemployment Rate at 3.5%, with the prior staying at 3.5%. Employment growth in recent months is slowing back towards pre-pandemic. They note that “We expect further slowing into next year with monthly job losses as demand cools further.”
Wells Fargo state that “While overall growth prospects have weakened considerably, we expect employers to continue to hire at a solid pace in the near term and Forecast payrolls to increase by 190,000 in October. We anticipate the unemployment rate will hold steady at 3.5% in October and look for average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% over the month.”