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A slew of positive US economic data ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes has helped keep the US dollar index moving higher today. The US dollar is stronger against all the major crosses apart from the Japanese yen as that has been on a rip higher for most of the day.
It is not just a Risk-On/Risk-Off situation either as the traditional safe havens of the Swiss and Gold are both weaker today, though for most of the day the euro and pound struggled to make gains.
The morning started off with relatively good data for the UK, but the pound could not hold above the London opening price and then as the US dollar buying began Cable dropped 50 pips finding a level to pause at around the 1.3850 to 1.3820 zone which had been previous resistance last week.
Fiscal stimulus and coronavirus vaccinations are keeping the markets optimistic, and President Biden wants to “Go Big” with the fiscal packages being put through Congress. His administration is offering the possibility of cancelling some student debt and raising the minimum wage to free up some consumer spending power amongst the poorest.
However, the yield curves are signalling inflationary worries and following on from today’s retail sales and PPI forecasts, the USA is looking likely to have a decent Q1/Q2 for GDP reading. GDP is a measure of consumption, investment and spending minus the US trade deficit, so a signal of rising consumption plus the massive fiscal deficits which amount to government spending, US GDP could be a lot higher. The Atlanta Fed GDP now indicator for Q1 came in twice that of market expectations as a signal for the data to come.
Oil found the $61 level today amid the Symposium on Energy Outlooks, and as prices rose, the Indian Oil Minister ‘urged OPEC+ “to refrain from output cuts, sighting demand would diminish with oil at the elevated prices and that risked the emerging markets recovery. Saudi Arabia had expressed the notion of bringing back the 1mln barrels per day voluntary cuts, with the Russia ex-energy minister pressing for OPEC+ to ease output cuts saying the market is balanced.
The USDCAD found resistance at the swing high prices from the 12th of February and a failure to hold above today’s double bottom around 1.26900 could see the Canadian dollar resuming the bullish trend against the US dollar. The Loonie has been in a 11-month downtrend and is testing prices last seen in the Spring of 2018. 1.2580 is a significant swing low before the support at 1.2520 and if it Oil keeps rising due to the tightening of reserves we could be there in the near future. The ActivTrader sentiment indicator is signalling that 82% of traders are bullish the USDCAD.
