Market Wrap – Weak ISM Data

The US dollar fell, and stock markets rose after data this afternoon showed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States fell to 46 in June 2023, from 46.9 in May and below forecasts of 47.

The reading pointed to a faster rate of contraction in the manufacturing sector since May 2020, with companies managing outputs down as softness continues and optimism about the second half of 2023 weakening.

In June, declines were seen in new orders (45.6 vs 42.6), production (46.7 vs 51.1), employment (48.1 vs 51.4), inventories (44 vs 45.8) and backlog of orders (38.7 vs 37.5).

Also, price pressures eased (41.8 vs 44.2) and the supplier deliveries index increased to 45.7 from 43.5, a sign manufacturing lead times improved again.

On the other hand, the customers’ inventories index dropped into ‘too low’ territory (46.2 vs 51.4), a positive for future production. Although clearly the data was sub-par.

Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM said “Demand remains weak, production is slowing due to lack of work, and suppliers have capacity. There are signs of more employment reduction actions in the near term“.

On a positive note, Construction spending in the United States rose by 0.9% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,925.6 billion in May of 2023, after a downwardly revised 0.4% rise in April and slightly above market forecasts of a 0.6% rise.

It was the strongest increase in construction spending in four months. Private spending rose by 1.1%, boosted by the residential segment (2.2%), with spending on single-family projects increasing by 1.7% while outlays on multi-family housing projects fell by 0.1%. T

The non-residential sector shrank 0.3%, especially for religious (-6.7%), health care (-2.1%) and commercial (-1.8%). Meanwhile, public spending ticked up by 0.1%, hampered by weak growth in the non-residential segment (0.1%). Yearly, construction spending grew by 2.4% in May.