Market Insight – Turkish Lira Implosion

The Turkish Lira currency has continued to drop today, despite the news confirming that Turkish President Erdogan appointed Hafize Gaye Erkan as the new central bank head.

To stem the massive move in the USDTRY to the upside the President has started to make cabinet changes, which happened during the previously rout in the Turkish Lira.

Hafize Gaye Erkan was formerly a finance executive in the United States, and now is head of Turkey’s central bank. He will attempt to reverse course and tighten policy after years of rate cuts and a simmering cost-of-living crisis.

A key element of its movement is also dependent on whether Erdogan allows the next central bank governor to actually do some of the tightening that’s necessary.

As well as the appointment the nation’s record low foreign reserves of -$5.7 billion to mention the all-time high of the USDTRY while suggesting a rate hike amid depleted foreign reserves, unchecked inflation and wide current account deficits.

Interestingly, and in light of the new cabinet shuffle the CBRT, which is the nation’s central bank meets on June 22, with a 25 basis points hike currently on the table.

It is also very likely that current action has a pinch of political impact, as re-election of President Erdogan, and it is a reaction by the market, which appears unhappy with the election results.

Currently, the annual inflation rate in Turkey fell for a seventh consecutive month to 39.6% in May 2023, the lowest since December 2021, from 43.7% in April. T

The big slowdown results from the pre-election promise made by President Erdogan to provide unlimited free natural gas for all households for a year.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were little changed, the lowest reading since 2008, after a 2.4% spike in April.