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Market Brief
In the Asia-Pac session, the markets received some inflation data from China. Year on year the Chinese inflation rate grew to 0.9% missing market expectations of 1.0%-1.1%. The US dollar started to appreciate against the Chinese yuan taking out yesterday’s highs at the London open. The price action yesterday in the USDCNH did not take out the significant low from 15th/16th February 2021 indicating that there are still buyers waiting to get filled around the 6.400-6.450 price zone.
The reason I watch this pair is because it is an early indicator of the overall price action in the US dollar especially when the USDCNH and EURUSD have different swing high/low divergences. If USDCNH fails to make new significant lows, there is a chance that the EURUSD does not break through to the highs.
The other data from China was their producer prices, which printed higher to 6.8% year-on-year in April 2021, beating market expectations of 6.5%. The PPI increases have sustained for 4 consecutive months at the steepest pace since October 2017. The rise in commodity prices due to the overall economic rebound and general manufacturing activity are being inflated by China’s policy of hoarding stock, creating a tighter market.
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The Nikkei 225 dropped on the back of the selloff in US tech equities yesterday, but also after the Japanese Governors indicated that they have not ruled out a nationwide state of emergency.
Later this morning the ZEW Economic sentiment for the Euro Area and Germany is released. The market is expecting the surveyed analysts to predict an improvement in economic activity after last month’s disappointing drop. Even though the April reading missed expectations, the EURUSD continued rallying off the month’s lows, so I am not expecting too much movement on the back of this data release, unless the print is below 63.0, which is the expectations lower bound.
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The GBPUSD is stalling at a daily supply zone from the late February swing high. If there were to be a more hawkish tone to any comments from Bank of England’s Bailey this afternoon, we could see a rise in the pound. The 2018 double top on the GBPUSD weekly chart around 1.4400 looks like the most logical target to a breakout of the 2021 highs.
The World Health Organization (WTO) expressed fresh worries surrounding the Indian COVID-19 variant, stating it was a “global concern”. This is going to weigh on trader’s sentiment and profit-taking is quite usual after the earning season.
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With the likes of the Dow Jones Industrial Average printing a daily bearish reversal candle yesterday and the DAX taking out the previous two days’ lows, the risk-on trade would appear to be over, so a move into safe havens is quite likely during this equity’s correction. That usually means Bonds, Gold, and the likes of yen are the go-to safe-havens.
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The USDJPY is currently in the middle of the April range, a move lower could target the 107.40-107.00 price zone, which would also have price outside of the Ichimoku cloud, which is currently indicating the support zone.
The ActivTrader sentiment indicator for the USDJPY is fairly even with 52% of traders bearish the pair.
