The German DAX has staged yet another powerful rebound back towards the 15,200 level, after receiving strong dip-buying interest was seen from the second time in less than a week from around the 14,800 level.
It is particularly noteworthy that the German DAX remains robust in the face of selling below the 15,000 level, as the index continues to benefit from traders’ veracious appetite for European equities.
Inflationary pressure coming from the United States could be a double-edged sword for European stock markets. Inflation could transfer into higher prices, higher wages, and higher company earnings.
However, inflation is sometimes categorized as too much money, chasing too few goods. Looking at the bear side, an increase in interest could come quicker than expected if inflation continues to ramp up.
This could prompt the ECB to act quicker than expect, which could cause a rotation out of stocks, and into bonds. A lot will depend on the coming EU and German CPI inflation data releases.
Bullish targets abound on the weekly chart, with the 18,000 level still flagged as a long-term target for the German DAX. With the technical looking bullish and the German economy coming out of lockdown it is probably too early for a bear market in European stocks.
Looking at sentiment, retail traders are still on the wrong side of the trade. The ActivTrader Market sentiment tool shows that GER30 traders are very bearish, with 59 percent of market participants holding a negative bias towards the GER30. I expect a continued recovery in the GER30 while sentiment holds negative.
GER30 Short-Term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame shows that the German DAX has formed a broadening wedge pattern. Bears have repeatedly failed to bring the price of the German DAX under the wedge.
According to the overall size of the pattern the German DAX could trade in a range between the 14,800 to 16,000 price range.
Be careful being short the German DAX if the price starts to firm above 15,400 as a coming rally to 16,000 could be about to unfold.
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GER30 Medium-Term Technical Analysis
Looking at the weekly and monthly time charts, a major technical breakout has taken place from a large, inverted head and shoulders pattern which continues to point to a coming rally towards the 18,000 area.
This could be a key reason while technical traders continue to buy price dips as they believe that the mentioned bullish pattern will play out to its full upside potential.
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