The British pound is set for move volatility against the Japanese yen currency as the Federal Reserve are set to raise rates this week, while the Bank of Japan talked down rates and inflation during their recent monetary policy meeting.
Strength in the British pound currency has been supporting on the GBPJPY pair over the past week, due to the lesser risk-off trading sentiment, and demand for the British pound.
However, the strength could last for long, as the clear divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England could cause yet more rate differentials to trade, also known as the carry trade for the GBPJPY pair.
With the United Kingdom economy showing strong signs of rising inflationary pressures, as highlighted by the recent November CPI report, and rising energy prices, the differentials between both economies is becoming too hard for traders to ignore.
I believe with the fundamentals of these economies are diverging in a big way, and buying the GBPJPY at bargain levels, i.e current trading levels could be a great play from now into year-end.
The ActivTrader Market Sentiment tool shows that some 69 percent of traders are bearish towards the GBPJPY pair right now. This goes strongly against the fundamentals, so do bare this in mond.
However, bearish sentiment does bode well for more gains in the GBPJPY pair as historical data has shown that fading one-sentiment skews amongst the retail crowd has proved to be lucrative.
GBPJPY Short-Term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame shows that the GBPJPY pair has formed a massive descending price channel type pattern, which are amongst the most bullish patterns.
According to the size of the pattern, the channel is located between the 167.00 and 160.00 level. Any dips towards the bottom of the channel could be a major buying opportunity. Overall, I expect a 700 point breakout at least, once the pattern is broken.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
GBPJPY Medium-Term Technical Analysis
Looking at the daily time chart shows that the GBPJPY pair has actually formed a large inverted head and shoulders pattern. The chart actually looks very similar to other yen cross pair charts.
Buyers have repeatedly held the price around the neckline of the mentioned inverted head and shoulders pattern. Interestingly, if bulls can hold the price above the 170.00 level then a powerful rally towards the 190.00 level should be expected.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.