The euro is still looking bullish against the US dollar due to the perception from the market that the Fed is unlikely to hike interest rates next month.
Meanwhile, the ECB, whose job it is to tame inflation at 2 percent is still facing an uphill battle to get eurozone inflation to the central banks mandated goal of 2 percent.
Due to the fact that the euro has the largest weighting inside the DXY basket of currencies it is likely that if the US dollar technical down move continues, we are likely to see EURUSD strength.
Additionally, if this week’s inflation report comes in lower we could start to see the 1.1100 level broken, meaning a clear range break has taken place for the euro.
Recently, the EURUSD pair has been trapped within a wide-reaching range of 1.0900 to 1.1100, with numerous upside and downside failures seen around the extremities.
I would expect that the pair could eventually headed down towards 1.1200 level and then possibly as high as the 1.1500 level later in the year.
The ActivTrader Sentiment tool suggests that 71% of traders are bearish on the EURUSD. This is still very good if we consider that traders are still that bearish despite the latest price rise.
As traders, we typically look to fade retail sentiment when it is overly skewed in one direction. This style of trading, fading sentiment, has been one of the most effective and used tactics of hedge funds.
The EURUSD is currently showing a solid technical development called higher highs and lower lows, this usually is suggestive of higher prices to come.
This above chart also clearly shows the range that we currently find ourselves trapped within. A break of 1.1100 or 1.0900 should set above the next major price breakout.
According to the daily time frame, the pair has recently invalidated a large head and shoulders pattern, which has projection for the EURUSD of around 500 points.
As long as the EURUSD pair stays above the 1.0800 price level then medium-term analysis shows eventual strength is likely towards 1.1500.