The price of copper has started to retrace from the $390.00 area as the precious metals market starts to turn lower with the price of gold and copper also starting to soften as the new trading week begins.
Copper had been rallying strongly as the market expected more demand for the metal considering also that China is the world’s largest copper importer and consumer and a recovery in other precious metals.
Expectations have also started to falter after China’s data points kept on disappointing and China’s copper imports even fell in the first quarter of 2023. Plus the market had not reacted to the recent central bank measures.
Goldman Sachs has also recently cut its forecasts for China’s full-year gross domestic product from 6% to 5.4%. The latest revision from Goldman Sachs follows the likes of UBS, Bank of America and JPMorgan who have all downgraded their China full-year GDP estimates.
Goldman Sachs’ economists said that there are a slew of macroeconomic issues facing the nation. This is also in line with other major global banks, and a reason why stocks are looking soft this week.
The overall picture bias remains bearish as the price continues to settle under $390.00. The risk is a much deeper price drop towards the $330.00 or even $300.00 level, especially if the Chinese economy remains weak.
Sentiment towards copper has been a big catalyst for copper prices. Sentiment towards copper is now bearish, with retail appearing to be caught on the wrong side of the trade recently.
According to the ActivTrader platform, 59 percent of traders are bearish. With the current sentiment bias towards copper, I believe more short-term upside in the red metal seems the most likely scenario.
Copper Short-term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame shows that copper only short-term bearish bias if copper continues to remain soft under the $390.00 level.
It is also noteworthy that the price must remain above the Ichimoku Cloud. The projection of the bullish projector suggest $400.00 may be coming.
Copper Medium-term Technical Analysis
The larger picture for copper prices remains bearish because the red-metal is now testing back towards the bottom of large broadening ascending price channel.
At the moment the price of copper is testing close to its 200-day moving average. I would suggest keeping a close eye on the $380.00 level for a major technical reversal towards back towards the $400.00 level.