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Brent crude oil has started to settle in a trading range between the $70.00 to $65.00 levels after peaking around $71.00 on March 8th. Bearish news surrounding COVID-19 vaccines caused another minor pullback in oil markets this week.
Despite the pullback from the $70.00 level, a number of top banks have raised their price forecasts towards Brent oil. An ongoing OPEC production cut and the notion that the global economy will start to come out of lockdown, and the $1.9 trillion stimulus package from the US economy will hit the real economy is helping to underpin bullish sentiment towards oil prices.
Looking more closely at what the investment banks are saying, I will start with Goldman Sachs. Analysts at the American banking giant are forecasting that Brent Oil will hit $75.00 in the second fiscal quarter, and for Brent Crude to rise $80.00 in the third quarter.
This is an increase of $5 per barrel since the bank’s last forward looking forecast. UBS investment bank has also raised its price forecast for Brent oil, and is also expecting $75.00 to be achieved during the second fiscal quarter.
JP Morgan are slightly less bullish towards Brent oil, and have a for $74.00 price forecast for 2021. Amongst the top reasoning for the banks increase their price forecasts is OPEC not expanding supply this year, and key oil nations keeping constrains in place.
In terms of technicals, the recent rally towards the $71.00 level has helped to shape a massive bullish reversal pattern, with a staggering $70.00 plus upside potential, meaning that oil could surge to new all-time highs if the pattern proves correct.
Market sentiment towards Brent Crude is bullish, however, sentiment is not approaching worrying one-way extremes. The ActivTrader Market Sentiment tool shows that some 57 percent of traders are bullish towards further gains in Brent oil. The small majority have so far been on the wrong side of the market this week.
Brent Crude Oil Short-Term Technical Analysis
According to the four-hour time frame a bullish flag pattern has formed and is indicating a potential upside breakout in Brent oil towards the $74.00 level if the $69.50 level is overcome.
Should we see a price dip below the $65.00, or fall under the bullish flag pattern, then a fall towards the $61.00 support region should be expected. Near-term support for Brent crude is found around the $63.80 and $62.80 levels.
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Brent Crude Medium-Term Technical Analysis
Looking at the daily time chart, an extremely large ascending triangle pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern, has officially formed, following the recent move towards the $71.00 resistance level.
According to technical analysis the bullish price pattern is predicting an eventual rally towards the $140.00 area. Any price dips towards the $65.00 to $63.00 area could be a major buying opportunity in expectation of an eventual break above $71.00.
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