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Apple Inc. analysis
Apple’s initial public offering was on December 12, 1980. In the period between 1980 and today, there was a time when Apple computers were near to bankruptcy, which seems unimaginable now, as the company has much cash as a small sovereign country.
After ousting Steve jobs from his own company, only to re-employ him at their lowest lows in 1997, Apple has been an American success story several times over. The biggest driver of Apple’s modern success is the iPhone, but the company has many hits including the iPod, iMac and App store.
The iPhones are now so expensive and so good that quarter on quarter sales have slowed, as users hold on to their handsets for longer periods between upgrades. New technologies and networks will keep things moving along and the coming 5G network rollout could see the next generation of iPhones reinvigorate the phone sales for the company.
On April 28, Apple’s Q1 earnings report showed the company’s earnings had risen 119% while sales increased 54%. In the March quarter, iPhone revenue soared 66% to $47.94 billion. Apple’s iPhone business accounted for 53.5% of the company’s sales in the period.
Meanwhile, computer sales surged 70% to $9.1 billion and iPad tablet sales jumped 79% to $7.8 billion. For some companies like Apple, having a global pandemic which lead to a stay-at-home lifestyle has been a real boost to profits. Also, during that period Apple’s stock got a boost when investment bank Morgan Stanley said the company is one of the best 5G wireless investment plays.
Today’s shares in U.S. technology giants are expected to open lower at the start of trading after the world’s richest nations agreed on a landmark global minimum corporate tax deal. The G7 advanced economies agreed on Saturday to back a minimum global corporate tax rate of at least 15%. FAANG stocks are all likely to be targeted, especially as President Biden had said one of his goals was to get the corporations to pay their fair share of tax during his election campaign. The G7’s proposals are seen targeting technology companies that sell services remotely and attribute much of their profits to intellectual properly held in low-tax jurisdictions.
Today is also the start of the Apple annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), starting at 1 p.m. ET with a keynote from Apple CEO Tim Cook conducted virtually for the second consecutive year due to the pandemic. It is expected as always that the WWDC will be used to unveil updates to the company’s various operating systems, but there is not anything in particular that is highly anticipated. With that said Tim Cook still manages to provide a nice surprise each year, so Apple fanboys will be waiting on every word.
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The last couple of WWDC events have been positive for the APPL share price, which bucks the usual trend of buy the rumour sell the news and looking at the chart the company’s share price is looking very bullish though momentum has slowed since the stock split last year.
Apple’s stock has split five times since the company went public. The stock split on a 4-for-1 basis on August 28, 2020, a 7-for-1 basis on June 9, 2014, and split on a 2-for-1 basis on February 28, 2005, June 21, 2000, and June 16, 1987.
The current Price per Earnings (P/E) is 28.25, with Price to Sales (P/S) @ 6.34. The company has a market cap of $2061.59B and has been the first US company to hit $1trn and $2trl market cap before the likes of Google and Amazon. The mean price that analysts predict for APPL is currently $159.85 which would be an increase of 26% from current levels.
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The correction from the 2021 highs may not be fully over and there is currently resistance above which may prove too much for the price to get through before it has fully found the daily 200 exponential moving average. As price has been above this key dynamic support line for more than a year. In fact, the last 12 months could have been a very large consolidation pattern after an exponential rise from the lows of December 2018.
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The impulsive 5 wave pattern from that low which may have culminated in 2020/2021 has corrected over time rather than giving investors a lower price to re-invest. If we were to see prices get above the April 2021 swing high, that could be the signal for the next impulsive move higher which in that case would smash the analysts predicted share price.
Buying a dip to the daily 200 ema would be one strategy and that would be on the basis that the overall risk-on trade was still bullish. For that you need to see Nasdaq and the S&P500 rising with higher highs and higher lows, showing the broader market is strong. For those that are not going to wait for a dip, the next best thing is to wait for a clean break out of the current consolidation and then buy the retest of that breakout. That would enable you to at least place your stop under the current price swing low to mitigate risk.
