The annual inflation rate in Italy fell to 6.4% in June of 2023, the lowest in 14 months and well under market expectations of 6.8%, dropping significantly from the 7.6% in the previous month according to preliminary estimates.
The decline was largely attributed to base year effects as energy costs have retreated from June-2022 peaks caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The CPI slowed significantly for non-regulated energy (8.4% vs 20.3% in May), processed food, and services related to transportation. On the other hand, consumer prices continued to accelerate for unprocessed food, limiting a further slowdown to inflation.
Hence, the core rate eased to 5.6% from 6% in the previous month and the record-high of 6.3% in February. Italian headline consumer prices stagnated in June of 2023, holding after a 0.3% increase in the previous month as a sharp increase in food costs offset a decline in the price of housing and utilities.
A number of ECB speakers were also on the wires this after. ECB’s de Guindos stated July rate hike is set and noted the ECB’s Centeno said that “Inflation is easing as quickly as it went up”.
He added that “Over-tightening is not an acceptable position” and that on the European economy his thoughts were that the “Economy already taking a hit, inflation will react are definitely getting.”
We also got some housing data this afternoon before the US session, with USA MBA mortgage applications for 23 June came in at +3.0% vs +0.5% prior. The Market index 216.1 versus 209.8 prior.
The figures were a decent bounce in mortgage applications in the past week as both purchases and refinance activities pick up, further suggesting the USA housing market is not crashing.