The US dollar is trading slightly higher against the against the Canadian dollar after finding solid buying interest due to the recent CPI release from the Canadian economy this week.
CPI data was also released on Tuesday from Canada, which showed that annual inflation rate in Canada fell to 4.3% in March of 2023, the lowest since August 2021.
The CPI report in line with market expectations and dropping from 5.2% in the previous month amid significant base-year effects for energy costs. This supports the FED and BOC divergence case.
Previously, the Bank of Canada held the target for its overnight rate unchanged at 4.5% in its March 2023 meeting, as previously signaled, and stated that it should continue to hold the rate at the current level should economic conditions develop broadly in line with expectations in the latest Monetary Policy Report.
The decision followed a 25-basis points interest rate hike in January and marked the first halt in the tightening campaign for major monetary authorities, as the BoC opted to shift its priority and support growth.
Going forward, if this divergence between USA and Canadian central banks remains, we are likely to see more USDCAD upside. The only potential issue could be higher oil prices boosting the Lonnie.
Very high levels of bullish sentiment are still being seen towards the USDCAD pair, with some 65 percent of traders currently holding a positive view towards the USDCAD pair.
With the strong bullish sentiment bias probably hints that a minor downside price correction could happen as retail are typically on the wrong side of the trade.
USDCAD Short-Term Technical Analysis
The USDCAD pair has activated a large head and shoulders pattern, and the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern is found around 1.3450 level. The pattern has already met its target, heightening the chances of higher prices.
According to technical analysis we could be close to an explosion to 1.3300 level soon to confirm the floor is in. I would expect 1.3430 would be the target if bulls take control.
USDCAD Medium-Term Technical Analysis
The USDCAD pair has recently found strong technical support and is trying to find buyers from the very bottom of its price range.
It should be noted that the trendline pattern breakout point is seen around the 1.3300 level. This would be a huge bearish breakout point for the USDCAD pair.