The EURUSD pair is under pressure against the US dollar as market sentiment remains bearish and the prospect of a winter of discontent looms for Europe.
On Wednesday the US dollar jumped in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes, hitting fresh weekly highs across the board and breaking short term resistance levels against the majors.
Rate watchers would know that this would imply big further hikes from the FED as we are likely to see 75 basis points hikes at the next two policy meetings.
With this in mind, the EURUSD is looking even more technical weakness and I would expect that the pair is headed down towards lows of the year and then the 0.9500 level.
The ActivTrader Sentiment tool suggests that 67% of traders are bullish on the EURUSD. This is still very worrying if we consider that traders are still buying despite the latest price drop this week.
As traders, we typically look to fade retail sentiment when it is overly skewed in one direction. This style of trading, fading sentiment, has been one of the most effective and used tactics of hedge funds.
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The EURUSD is currently showing a large head and shoulders pattern. The size of the pattern would indicate that a short-term bottom could be nearing around the 0.9500 area.
This is a worrying chart for the EURUSD over the short-term. This pattern is actually projecting a move of around 200 points. The target of 0.9500 is seen, and possibly even lower if this pattern is correct.
According to the daily time frame, the pair is trapped in a large falling price channel and has projection for the EURUSD around the 0.9400 level also at the bottom of the channel.
As long as the EURUSD pair stays below the 1.000 price level then medium-term analysis shows that further weakness towards 0.9400 is possible.
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