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The US dollar is steadily rising against the Japanese yen currency as the recent explosion in demand for the US 10-year bond yield continues to fuel demand for risk-sensitive pair. The US yield curve is now at its steepest level since 2017.
If the current trend in bond yields continues it could be hugely beneficial for the pair. In case some traders are not aware, when US yields rise the US dollar currency tends to benefit initially, and especially the USDJPY pair.
In theory, the widening spread between United States government bonds and Japanese government bond makes the greenback a more attractive asset for investors. So, this is potentially what we are seeing right now.
Something else to note is that markets perception that the incoming Biden administration is likely to dramatically increase US fiscal spending is unlikely to change anytime soon, meaning that the trend of higher bond yields could be here to stay.
The USDJPY pair has been in a protracted downtrend for several months and has been gradually declining since April. In fact, the USDJPY has lost over 1,000 points since its strong bounce from the March 2020 lows.
Traders were rewarded selling rallies in the USDJPY pair for most of last year, however, extreme caution should be exercised as the fundamental factors and driving forces surrounding the pair are changing, due to US politics and the Democrats gaining control of US Senate.
Market sentiment data shows that 60 percent of traders are bullish towards the USDJPY pair, which means that the trade is still not overcrowded. According to the ActivTrader Market Sentiment tool some 93 percent of traders are short the US dollar index right now, which bodes well for the USDJPY pair from a contraction perspective.
The technicals are currently showing that a major sea change could also be underway if bulls can gain traction above the 104.50 level. The fundamentals are driving the pair at the moment, however, the technicals are showing that a major bullish breakout could also be close.
USDJPY Short-Term Technical Analysis
The four-hour time frame continues to highlight that the USDJPY pair is getting close the top of a large falling wedge pattern. Typically, falling wedge patterns are amongst the most bullish reversal patterns.
It should be noted that the USDJPY pair has had several chances to break below the bottom of the falling wedge patter, however, selling interest was lacking on each occasion.
Source by ActivTrader.
According to the overall size of the bullish reversal pattern the USDJPY pair could rally towards the 106.00 area if a bullish breakout above the 104.50 level takes place.
Also, watch out for multi-day price stabilization above the mentioned wedge pattern as a sign that the trade has legs, and that the USDJPY pair is turning bullish.
USDJPY Medium-Term Technical Analysis
Looking at the daily time chart, the main theme is the bearish triangle breakout that took place in the summer. Currently the triangle pattern breakout is located around the 106.40 level and remains a key focus for medium-term traders.
It is noteworthy that the size of the pattern implies that a downside move of around 1,500 points could take place. However, since the breakout occurred the losses for the USDJPY pair have been limited to around 500 points.
Source by ActivTrader
If bulls can gain traction above the triangle then a major bullish and trend reversal could take place. The USDJPY pairs 200-day moving average is also located close to the bottom of the triangle
If price is rejected from the triangle, and the 200-day moving average, then it could be a powerful indication that the bear trend may continue to the full 1,500-point target of the triangle pattern.
