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The USDCAD plunged by -0.22% to the close of the week as the Fed’s hawkish remarks faded. The dollar weakened following a rise in US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. The initial Jobless claims rose to 196K against 190K forecasted underpinning dollar weakness. The USDCAD edged lower from the 1.3475 level as investors shifted focus to Canadian Jobs data.
Crude oil prices rallied on Friday as Russia prepares to cut oil output by 500 000 barrels per day in March amidst rising demand. US Crude oil inventories dropped to 2.423M against 2.457M surveyed on Wednesday. USWTI crude oil futures rallied by +3.04% while Brent crude oil soared by 2.90% on Friday underpinning a stronger Canadian dollar in the near term.
However, worries about a deeper global economic meltdown could lift the USDCAD in the near term. China’s PPI data released on Thursday morning came in worse than expected at -0.8% against -0.5% anticipated dampening the optimism in the market.
There will be a release of Canadian Employment Change for January along with the Unemployment Rate in the New York session. Michigan Consumer Expectations for February will be key in the US economic docket ahead of next week’s inflation report.
Weekly Chart Analysis
USDCAD remains under selling pressure as bears maintain the 1.3525 level as a near-term high. The MACD indicator volumes bars are trading below the 0.00 benchmark suggesting that the USDCAD outlook is currently bearish on a weekly time frame and upside gains are limited. A break below 1.3225 could reinforce the bearish outlook and the next key target is at the 1.2500 level.
However, a hold above the 1.3225 level coinciding with a 50-day moving average remains a major support level that could strengthen bulls to challenge the 1.3525 level. A break above that level, coinciding with a Bollinger Band baseline could give bulls the 1.40000 level, a 24 May 2020 high.
The ActivTrader Sentiment tool suggests that 55% of retail traders are bearish on the USDCAD pair. The Canadian dollar is stronger due to a rally in Crude oil prices amidst a slide in USD. The rise in Initial Jobless Claims underpins dollar weakness and USDCAD bears could trade lower in the near term.
However, the global economic downturn remains a major headwind for the Crude oil markets and keeps a cap on the Canadian dollar. Moreso, expectations of further tightening by the Fed favour the USDCAD buyers hence the market participants could seek to buy the market dips.
Daily Chart Analysis
The USDCAD recovered modestly after bouncing off the 1.3225 level, a 5-month. The 200-day moving average is acting as a near-term support level and bulls could target the 1.3700 level if 1.3475 fails to hold as a near-term barrier. The RSI indicator has broken above the 50.00 level suggesting near-term buyers could be seeking a break above the 1.3475 level as the bias turns bullish.
However, a failure to challenge the 1.3475 level could cause downward pressure on the USDCAD and the next key support level is at the 1.3225 level. A breach of that immediate support could invalidate the bullish outlook and could trigger sellers to seek a leg lower and 1.30000 remains the next psychological level to watch out for.
