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Market Brief
Today’s theme will be inflation, culminating in the fed telling us that it is all transitory. This morning’s data out of the UK showed an uptick in inflation to the highest reading for a year beating market expectations by 0.1%. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 1.6% in the 12 months to April 2021, up from 1.0% growth to March.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported that the largest upward contributions to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate came from housing and household services and transport. Rising household utility, clothing, and motor fuel prices made the largest upward contributions to CPIH growth in April 2021. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.5% in the 12 months to April 2021, up from 0.7% growth to March.
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The GBPUSD is still struggling to break through the 1.4200 major resistance level but has opened at the start of the London session positively.
The ActivTrader sentiment indicator still has most traders bearish the pair with 67% shorting this bullish trend.
On the daily chart the 20, 50 and 200 ema’s are all stacked on top of each other, and they are continuing to diverge from each other, showing growing momentum to the upside. 1.4400 remains the most logical level to the upside for traders to test but if the price were to fall away from the 1.4200 initial support comes in at 1.4000, 1.3930 and the 200 ema at 1.3600.
Later this morning and then into this afternoon we receive eurozone and Canadian inflation.
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The US dollar index is currently trading below the $90 level but inside yesterday’s range and is likely to test higher into this afternoon as the US 10-year yields are rising. The euro is the largest component to the US dollar index and in today’s price action we have seen the February swing high get swept before prices came back into yesterday’s range. This liquidity grab could be enough for bulls to take profits and for price to pull back into support.
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The DAX and FTSE gapped lower today, following on from the bearish moves yesterday from the US indices. Both are in the middle of an old consolidation range, so price action is likely to be choppy for the rest of the day.
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Of all the G10 pairs the NZDUSD starts the day the weakest but unless we can get a 100 pip move to the downside, we are likely to trade within last week’s range until the US dollar makes a directional move.
The ActivTrader sentiment indicator has 71% of traders short which is getting close to the extremes and therefore the likelihood is that these short positions get squeezed higher.
