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Market Wrap
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said today “Over the next six months, I see very clearly that there is a strong recovery of oil demand in the US, China, Europe and elsewhere”.
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The price of WTI Crude Oil traded up to the $68.70 per barrel level before finding some resistance. The price action is green for the day but the London close marked the peak before the profit taking took place. Today we learned that OPEC+ will increase the flows of oil to market and will reassess the continued production increases at the next monthly meeting, which is pencilled in for the 1st of July 2021.
By then they will have a better idea of how well the Iranian sanctions talks are going and the possible effect of Iran being able to sell oil to the broader market. If we should get back above the current day high soon that will be a very bullish signal as the chart pattern would be a classic retest of the breakout level at $67.66. If prices start accepting below that level for the next day, we could be back inside the range as traders look to revert to the mean.
Just after the US futures opened, we received the ISM Manufacturing PMI data which printed 61.2 in May, marking a positive uptick from 60.7 in April and beat analysts’ predictions of 60.9. The better-than-expected data shows a slightly stronger growth in factory activity. However, with new orders and a backlog of orders accelerating while the factories are unable to fill all the jobs, it shows that there are still substantial problems in the system. The hope is that the inflationary pressures are transitory, and some states are deciding to opt out of the Federal fiscal support as the fear is the direct payments are putting off low paid workers from returning to jobs.
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The US dollar index has not really moved and is likely to stay at this level, or within May’s trading range around $90 level, while we wait for employment data this week. The EURUSD is above the day’s opening price but rather than that being due to the US dollar it is likely to be correlated more to the rise in EURGBP today.
Early in the London session we received the final Manufacturing PMI data from the UK which showed that Conditions in the manufacturing sector improved at an unprecedented rate in May, as output growth strengthened, and new orders rose at the quickest pace nearly 30 years. Looser pandemic restrictions and high levels of pent-up demand meant that the rapid revival in labour market conditions continued, with staffing levels also rising at a record pace. The market analysts were expecting a slightly higher number, and the price action today would suggest that this miss in expectations was perceived to be a negative.
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