The Week Ahead

During the week ahead the market is likely to look towards a number of key market themes and events which have the potential to indicate financial market moves.

The economic calendar is jammed packed with important events and releases this week. The release of the retail sales data from the USA and China, plus UK jobs will be the main focus.

China retail sales

April retail sales figures, estimates suggest a figure of around 21.1%, which be the strongest increase since March 2021. Growth in industrial production is also expected to accelerate from March’s 3.9% increase, possibly expanding 10.1%.

Last month Retail sales in China increased 10.6% year-on-year in March, up from 3.5% in the combined January-February period, as consumer activity rebounded after three consecutive months of negative readings at the end of 2022.

Recent solid updates from the likes of luxury goods providers LVMH, Hermes and Kering have also fuelled optimism that the Chinese consumer is back, however, the latest PMI numbers suggest that China’s rebound may be weak.

US retail sales

US retail sales have proved reasonably resilient this year, growing 2.4% month-on-month in January, posting zero growth in February, and declining 0.4% in March. More broadly, the US economy appears to be in robust shape. Inflation has eased this year, the labour market has remained strong, and company earnings have been broadly positive.

The recent turmoil in the US banking sector may have made some consumers more cautious, possibly affecting their spending patterns. Plus weekly jobless numbers are on the rise, suggesting consumers may be tightening.

This could be reflected in the retail sales figures for April. However, estimates for April are surprisingly strong, with some analysts calling for a 0.7 to 0.8% rise and year-on-year numbers to remain flat.