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Market Wrap
US retail sales, US core retail sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing data all came in better than expected today and the US dollar rallied hard into the US open. The Swiss franc remains offered as it has been all day and the yen seem to be bid as uncertainty around the Evergrande debt situation unravels. The US weekly jobless claims were slightly higher, but broadly in line with analysts’ expectations with a high probability of a revision higher when the Labour Day holiday and hurricane Ida disruptions are accounted for.
US retail sales headline figure came in 0.7% for August which is much higher than the -0.8% that was expected. Though looking at the graph above it is hard to see much improvement in the economy with consumers obviously curbing spending since the direct stimulus cheques faded out of the income of most households. Rising inflation and continued pandemic disruptions could see prices becoming out of reach of most citizens in which case if there is no economic pick up across the board, the prices of things will have to come down to encourage people with less money to spend more. The Philly Fed Business Index for September came in at 30.7, beating expectations of 18.8 and the previous reading of 91.4.
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The US dollar is doing a great job of showing resilience and is currently maintaining the medium-term bullish momentum with all 3 daily moving averages now below price and acting as dynamic support. A rising US dollar will put continued pressure on the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian economies as they are all closely tied to commodity exports.
The ActiveTrader sentiment indicator for the EURUSD has moved towards the extreme bullish levels having been over 60% bearish only a few days ago. The EURUSD makes up a majority of the currency weighting within the US dollar index, so a bearish EURUSD is going to keep the US dollar higher and vice-versa.
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With the EURUSD falling back inside a weekly balance area, I see no clear trade currently. If the weekly price action was to fall out of this range, I would be looking for a retest and continuation lower. I am still expecting a break higher though, but I am long enough in the tooth to go with the “Price Pays” attitude, and I am willing to allow price to dictate where it wants to go, and I’ll just follow.
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For the second consecutive US trading session the Nasdaq has broken higher than the initial balance high having sold off from the futures open. This is a clear sign that the bulls are buying the dip, but for some reason the banks are selling into the initial rallies in the first hour of business still. When the selling has trapped enough traders into the shorts, they lift the offer and the rally higher is swift. Apple Inc. today reported higher pre-order sales of the new iPhone than the previous addition. They are also likely to gain market share as they have secured their chips whereas other companies are having to compete with the few other chip providers.
