Stocks rattled after hawkish Fed minutes send yields surging

Market Update

Global equity market sentiment has taken a beating in wake of the latest much more hawkish than anticipated FOMC minutes release, with yield-sensitive tech and growth stocks leading the downside after an increase Fed tightening bets for 2022 sent US (and global) bond yields lurching higher. The Nasdaq 100 was thus the underperformer of the major US indices on Wednesday, dropping over 3.0% to under 15.8K (now down nearly 3.5% on the week) and Nasdaq 100 futures are down a further 0.4% this morning and eyeing a break below 15.7K. Downside that was most heavily concentrated in tech dragged the S&P 500 nearly 2.0% lower on the day to close bang on the 4700 level, a break below which (bearish technicians suspect) could open the door to a test of recent lows in the 4500s given a lack of near-term support. The Dow, meanwhile, held up a little better, dropping “only” just over 1.0% as its greater exposure to defensive and cyclical sectors that perform better when yields rise eased the overall tailwinds. This mornings, S&P 500 futures are flat around 4700 still, while Dow futures are up about 0.2%.

To summarise the just of yesterday’s Fed minutes for the December meeting where the term transitory was dropped, the pace of the QE taper was doubled and three rate hikes were indicated in 2022 by the dotplot, it was much more hawkish than expected. There was wide agreement that higher than expected inflation meant that the Fed might need to raise interest rates sooner than expected (reflecting the dotplot shift), there was wide agreement that the labour market was already very tight, and markets were particularly surprised at the support for an earlier and faster pace of balance sheet reduction once the hiking cycle is underway. In other words, there seems to be strong support for quantitative tightening to go alongside rate hikes in 2022, which, though hinted at by Fed members including Waller back in December, comes as a surprise. In wake of the minutes Fed funds futures have moved to imply a near 80% chance that the bank will implement its first-rate hike in March and lift rates to 0.8% by the year’s end. In other words, markets now seem to be fully taking the Fed’s dotplot seriously and pricing three hikes this year.

Whilst losses in big tech stole the headlines, their primary driver, a move higher in yields, is worth discussing. US 2-year yields, which are highly sensitive to near-term Fed rate expectations, scorched higher to hit post-pandemic highs of 0.87% and are now up more than 12bps on the week. 10-year yields are flying above the Q4 2021 highs at 1.70% and are now looking for an imminent test of the 2021 highs at 1.77%. At current levels near-1.75%, they are up about 22bps on the week. 30-year yields surged above 2.1% and are eyeing a test of September highs just above 2.15%, also up over 20bps on the week. Real yields have also been surging, with the 10-year TIPS hitting multi-month highs at -0.80%. According to ING’s Antoine Bouvet, “the discussion about quantitative tightening in the minutes is very significant… First and foremost, it shows the magnitude of the Fed’s change of tone as they contemplate a more aggressive balance sheet reduction in parallel to hikes”.

In terms of some analyst reactions to the latest bout of equity downside in wake of FOMC minutes; OANDA’s Craig Erlam noted that “there is the potential for more volatility at the start of the year, and the Fed minutes fed into that volatility, but it’s not indicative of a sudden, negative shift in investor sentiment”. “I think (the tech rout is) an overreaction to the minutes,” he continued, “even if that lasts a day, two days, three days, I don’t think it’s going to have a firm effect in the long term”. However, Mizuho rates strategist Peter McCallum warns that “a lot of assets are priced on real rates remaining low… So even if real yields are low, their rise, especially at the short end, is going to see equity downside.”

Looking at international markets, Asia and European stocks have unsurprisingly also been hit and we are seeing upwards pressure on European yields. The Stoxx 600 dropped more than 1.2% on Thursday to fall back from recent record levels in the 495 area to the 488s. However, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that they remain bullish on the European equity space given is disproportionate exposure to so-called value and cyclical stocks that tend to benefit on rising long-term bond yields (as that indicates healthier expected economic conditions. The bank said it year-end forecast was for the Stoxx 600 to reach 530 and in particular recommended the banking and energy sectors. Meanwhile, as European yields rise across the board in tandem with their US counterparts, there has been particular focus on the German 10-year as it nears the 0.0% mark. It currently trades at -0.04%, its highest since May 2019 and is up 14bps on the week and over 35bps since Decembers lows.

Upside in Eurozone yields reflects traders upping their bets that the ECB will “capitalute” to higher inflationary pressures in wake of the more hawkish sounding Fed and a 10bps rate hike is now priced for October. That’s seems excessive, with a rate hike likely to come in early 2023 at earliest (a scenario outlined by ECB hawks recently). No one at the ECB has been calling for a rate hike as soon as Q4 of this year. But strong Eurozone data this morning does seem to help to support these bets and help the euro outperform in the G10 space. German CPI data this morning showed a surprise rise in December to 5.3% from 5.2% (though HICP data showed a fall to 5.7% from 6.0% as expected), which comes after very strong Factory Order numbers out this morning.

Indeed, the euro is the second best performing G10 currency this morning after the yen, as both low yielding currencies surprisingly fend off the dollar’s post-hawkish FOMC minute advances for now, with the dollar’s gains concentrated for now against more risk-sensitive currencies. USDJPY is trading in the 115.80s having dropped back from above 116.00 again, while EURUSD is well support in the 1.1310 area where it trades flat on the day. CAD and GBP meanwhile are both down about 0.1% on the day versus the buck as buoyant oil prices (which are being helped by geopolitical worries regarding Kazakhstan) aid the Loonie and better than expected final UK December Services PMI helps sterling. GBPUSD is trading just under 1.3550 and USDCAD is just above 1.2750. The Aussie and Kiwi are suffering the worst, the former down about 0.7% on the day versus the buck and the latter down about 0.5%. AUDUSD has slid under 0.7200 and NZDUSD has dropped to 0.6750.

Day Ahead

Coming up soon at 1330GMT is the weekly US jobless claims report that it expected to show initial claims at still very low levels, with focus now on Friday’s official December jobs report. Canadian trade data will also be released at 1330GMT. The US ISM Services PMI survey for December is then out at 1500GMT alongside US Factory Orders (November). Otherwise, focus remains on movements in bond yields and the ongoing Fed tightening discussion.