Market Wrap
There have been several reports of live firing in the contested areas of Ukraine from both sides, with the latest reports suggesting journalists in Stanitsya Luhanska being able to hear the sounds of artillery. Regarding frequent US and NATO predictions of the exact date of the Russian invasion, Peskov noted that it is difficult to take such claims seriously and jokingly advised the Ukrainian side to “set an alarm” to be sure there is no “attack”.
Thankfully the Russian Defence Ministry said that some Russian troops had now returned to base in Chechnya having completed drills in Crimea. If there is to be a peaceful resolution, both sides would need to retreat a lot more. The expulsion of diplomats from both sides of the story is not helping.
The moves in the markets have been towards the safe-haven currencies, out of the Canadian dollar and euro. Gold has also been bid all day and is pushing into $1900 /oz.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
If gold gets through the psychological big figure of $1900 the previously contested level of $1905 is likely to break. Which leaves $1934 as a level some weak handed bulls will take profits and possibly flip short.
The US economic data out this afternoon didn’t help the risk markets and in particular the US indices. According to the US Department of Labour’s report, initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 23,000 to 248,000 during the week ending February 12. Analysts had predicted 219,000 initial claims and the rise this week breaks the 3 consecutive declines. The 4-week moving average decreased by 10,500 over the previous week.
The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development announced that housing starts fell 4.1% to 1,638,000 in January compared to the previous month’s revised estimate. From January 2021 to January 2022, housing starts rose by 0.8%. Meanwhile, building permits were up by 0.7% on a monthly basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,899,000.
James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said on Thursday that he does not believe increased interest rates will cause a recession. Furthermore, he repeated that the central bank should look to raise interest rates by a full percentage point in total by the beginning of July as inflation is over 300 basis points from its target.
The market is signalling that they are preparing for the rate hikes, as the Eurodollar yield curve is rising at the front of end of the curve. In a healthy economic expansion, rising yields would be a good sign and the curve would rise from the lower left corner to the upper right corner. What we have seen since December 2021 in Blue, is that the market expects rates to rise from March and through 2022. But then there is going to be a disruption, as we get through to 2023-2025, which is when the curve bumps and then declines. The extended outlook pricing in a flat to declining economy. This doesn’t read well, and the Eurodollar market is giving a different assessment than Bullard.
See real-time quotes provided by our partner.
The GBPUSD trade to the upside is working well now and we could be about to push at an accelerated pace towards the 1.3700 level, assuming we can clear some old daily highs. The price compression under the daily 200 EMA could be over on a close as strong as today, which means the uptrend could now be about to move up a time frame with weekly targets all the way back to 1.4200.
A comprehensive website for traders, both experienced and new! Checkout our content and learn how to invest and speculate in the markets using margin traded products. Our team of educators has extensive experience and is here to help. Enjoy!
© 2020 YouTrading UK - Leaders in Trader Training.
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
__cfduid | 1 month | The cookie is used by cdn services like CloudFare to identify individual clients behind a shared IP address and apply security settings on a per-client basis. It does not correspond to any user ID in the web application and does not store any personally identifiable information. |
_wpfuuid | 11 years | This cookie is used by the WPForms WordPress plugin. The cookie is used to allows the paid version of the plugin to connect entries by the same user and is used for some additional features like the Form Abandonment addon. |
cf_use_ob | This cookie is set by the provider Cloudflare content delivery network. This cookie is used for determining whether it should continue serving "Always Online" until the cookie expires. | |
cookielawinfo-checbox-analytics | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". |
cookielawinfo-checbox-functional | 11 months | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". |
cookielawinfo-checbox-others | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement | 1 year | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Advertisement". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". |
viewed_cookie_policy | 11 months | The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
YSC | session | This cookies is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_ga | 2 years | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to calculate visitor, session, campaign data and keep track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookies store information anonymously and assign a randomly generated number to identify unique visitors. |
_gid | 1 day | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. The cookie is used to store information of how visitors use a website and helps in creating an analytics report of how the website is doing. The data collected including the number visitors, the source where they have come from, and the pages visted in an anonymous form. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_fbp | 3 months | This cookie is set by Facebook to deliver advertisement when they are on Facebook or a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising after visiting this website. |
fr | 3 months | The cookie is set by Facebook to show relevant advertisments to the users and measure and improve the advertisements. The cookie also tracks the behavior of the user across the web on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. |
IDE | 1 year 24 days | Used by Google DoubleClick and stores information about how the user uses the website and any other advertisement before visiting the website. This is used to present users with ads that are relevant to them according to the user profile. |
test_cookie | 15 minutes | This cookie is set by doubleclick.net. The purpose of the cookie is to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. |
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE | 5 months 27 days | This cookie is set by Youtube. Used to track the information of the embedded YouTube videos on a website. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_gat_UA-42160853-2 | 1 minute | No description |
cf_ob_info | No description | |
CONSENT | 16 years 8 months 3 days 6 hours 2 minutes | No description |