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Market Update
US equities reached record levels last Friday, with the S&P 500 index posting a record close at 4712, though on an intra-day basis, is still about 0.6% below record highs at 4745 setbacks in November. The gains came despite US Consumer Price Inflation reaching it highest in nearly four decades at 6.8% YoY. The market reaction reflected the fact that some had been anticipating a much worse number (i.e. of above 7.0%). Amid a broadly positive tone to risk appetite at the start of the week that is likely getting a boost from further hopes for more stimulus in China after leaders there recently vowed to prioritise economic stability in 2022, US equities are making further gains this morning, with S&P 500 futures up about 0.2% near 4730.
Equity market price action is seemingly a vote of confidence that the Fed’s increasingly hawkish policy stance is appropriate given economic conditions. Amid high inflation, surging growth and a tight labour market, the Fed is likely to announce a doubling of the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday and is likely to signal multiple rate hikes in 2022 via its updated dot-plot. While the Fed will be the central focus of the week, there are plenty more important central bank events and economic data releases for investors to sink their teeth into as well.
The ECB will give details on its post-PEPP QE plans on Thursday and the BoE will probably not hike in light of the rising Omicron threat in the UK and recent restrictions. On which note, the tone of UK PM Boris Johnson over the weekend was alarming, with the PM warning of a “tidal wave” of Omicron infections and refusing to rule out more restrictions ahead of Christmas. Back to the week ahead, the Swiss National Bank will maintain its ultra-dovish stance, the Norges Bank will implement a second, well telegraphed rate hike and the CBRT will probably press ahead with another ill-advised rate cut of around 100bps, despite inflation exceeding 21% last month. Ahead of that, TRY has been all over the place, with USDTRY hitting a new record high at 15.00 this morning before the CBRT stepped in, not that they have much firepower to prevent any further selling.
A few other major EM central banks are also deciding on rates, including in Hungary and Turkey. Meanwhile, there are plenty of key data releases for investors to sign their teeth into. UK jobs, US PPI and Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures are out Tuesday, ahead of US Retail Sales ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday, UK and Canadian CPI figures are due, ahead of Australia jobs data, UK, Eurozone and US flash December PMIs on Thursday, though this will be overshadowed by the ECB and BoE meetings. Friday will be a little quieter, though there is still a BoJ rate decision.
Back to what markets this morning are doing; though its risk on in equities, crude oil has been coming off, with WTI In the red and back to around $71.00 amid a better tone to news on Iranian nuclear discussions. WTI remains within recent ranges after last week’s impressive gains. In terms of bonds, US 2s are flat around 0.66% a little below last weeks above 0.70% highs as the Fed dot-plot is eyed, while 10s are 2bps lower around 1.46%. In FX the dollar is dominant, with the DXY up about 0.2% on the day around 96.30, though to be fair, still within recent ranges. Most G10 currencies are taking their cue from the stronger dollar, with AUD the laggard down nearly 0.5%, NZD, JPY, CAD, EUR and CHF all down between 0.2-0.4% versus the buck and GBP surprisingly doing quite well despite Omicron alarmism from the UK PM.
Day Ahead
Today is the quiet before the storm, with very little of note on the economic calendar for the rest of the day. Omicron news will of course be important to watch, as ever, with particular focus on the UK as restrictions are reimposed there.
