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Nasdaq Index Analysis
The Nasdaq has been in a couple of months consolidation phase, having found all-time highs back in April 2021. The 1000-point drop to 12920 which settled at a previous balance area formed in March 2021 has shown the core bull trend was never compromised, as on a monthly chart the trend is still for higher swing highs and higher swing lows. In hindsight the May pullback was more likely price discovery rather than profit taking, as the 13000 was a good level to test and collect more buyers.
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If we had not had a new monthly low, I am sure the commentary would now be that the Nasdaq is looking over-extended to the upside, but as we did print a new monthly low in May and March it is now most likely that 13,000 is a solid base for the Nasdaq to jump to ever higher highs, with 14,000 very likely to get breached again while the Fed refuse to raise interest rates.
The Nasdaq has been a bit of a roller coaster ride for US tech investors as inflation fears grew and US treasury yields steepened, but over the last year it has been able to hold on to 42% gains with the Russell 2000 the highest gaining index coming in as a massive 55.69% over the last 365 days.
These large gains and current uptick in price action are happening while US investor sentiment is still not 100% convinced that the Federal Reserve are reading the markets correctly and that there will be a need for a shift in policy. Looking at the AAII members sentiment survey, 36.2% of investors are still sat on the fence, whereas 19.8% feel the markets should already be coming down. When those 36.2% all decide to get involved whether that be to the upside or downside, will probably mark the extreme of the move. But if the underlying market conditions continue to be supportive to the equity markets and these traders sit on the fence, we could be grinding higher for longer.
The US 10 Year-2 Year yield curve clearly shows the peak in inflation worries as the curve flattened off at the end of March and has been drifting lower since. Should it steepen to the downside, I would expect the Nasdaq 100 to rise higher with an added acceleration. Tomorrows CPI number should it come in lower than expected may be the catalyst for this scenario to play out.
One of the biggest economic drivers has been the fiscal stimulus packages that were created to support the economy during the pandemic crisis. When asked about a possible 4th round of stimulus cheques for Americans, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said, “The president is certainly open to a range of ideas” but then noted “he’s also proposed what he thinks is going to be the most effective for the short term.” President Biden is currently trying to get the next stimulus packages through with bipartisan support. According to a recent study, the first three stimulus checks helped reduce hardships like food insufficiency and financial instability, though some states are saying the stimulus cheques are stopping people from going back to work and they are proposing to opt out of the programme.
Assuming there is to be trillions more in stimulus and the taxes that are created do not exceed the money being pumped into the economy the net effect should be more money flowing through the system, which will be good for the equities markets.
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On the daily chart the Ichimoku cloud has represented the areas of support very well and the price action is indicating higher swing highs and higher swing lows. We have seen healthy moves to the upside followed by periods of consolidation which is typical for a bull market. And as the saying goes, “The Bulls take the stairs” which is clearly evident in the last 5 weeks of trading on the Nasdaq.
It is actually a tricky place to get long currently as we are in the middle of a previous balance area which formed around the creation of the ATH’s, which could mean a lot of trades need to be unwound around the 13,900 level. Obviously if the shorts puke their position Nasdaq cuts through these levels with ease but in reality, we are likely to get some chop, with the next clean long entry occurring at a break and retest of the previous resistance zone.
To keep in line with the underlying market conditions it would be best to have an Apple/Microsoft and Google chart up as well as the VIX. For going long, you want to see the big tech companies green for the day and for the VIX to be declining.
