Morning Brief – Bank of Korea Unchanged

Risk trades have seen a small increase during the Asian session, with stock markets stabilizing and the US dollar taking a small amount of losses following the FOMC meeting minutes release.

Aside from the FOMC meeting minutes trade, traders also paid close tension on the outcome of the Bank of Korea rate decision, comment from the RBNZ Governor, and news from Russian.

Earlier today the Bank of Korea (kept its base rate unchanged at 3.5% during its February meeting, matching market consensus, as the board shift its attention to supporting the economy after putting a prolonged focus on cost pressures.

Today’s move came after seven straight increases delivered since April 2022. Policymakers said domestic economic growth has continued to slow, amid weakening private consumption and falling exports.

With that said, the economy is expected to improve gradually from H2 of 2023, due to a recovery in China’s economy and in the IT industry. This year, GDP growth is projected to be 1.6%, slightly lower than the November forecast of 1.7%. Meanwhile, 2023 headline inflation is forecast to be 3.5%, less than an earlier forecast of 3.6%.

The board reiterated it will judge whether the base rate needs to rise further while assessing the pace of inflation slowdown, downside risks and financial stability risks, the effects of tightening, and policy changes in major countries

Earlier today the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr was speaking in an interview and said that “cyclone-related inflationary pressure may require higher rates for longer.”

He also noted “There would need to be a large inflationary shock to return to 75bp rate hike” and “there are early signs of price pressures beginning to ease in the global economy.”

In other news Russia’s defence ministry says that “in the near future” Ukraine plans to stage an “armed provocation” against Transnistria, Moldova. Reports suggest Russia’s Ministry of Defence is closely monitoring the situation and is ready to respond to any changes in the situation.