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Market Update
It is shaping up to be quite a subdued end to the week, or end to the year for many market participants who will be taking the next few weeks off given Christmas holidays. European equity markets are predominately flat (Stoxx 600 flat), as are US equity index futures (S&P 500 +0.1%), but that does not mean volatility does not lay ahead; its Quadruple Witching day for the stock market, which can often result in unexplainable, choppy market moves.
Here is Investopedia’s explanation of what Quadruple Witching is…
Quadruple witching refers to a date on which stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. While stock options contracts and index options expire on the third Friday of every month, all four asset classes expire simultaneously on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Quadruple witching days witness heavy trading volume, in part, due to the offsetting of existing futures and options contracts that are profitable.
Moreover, Tesla is being added to the S&P 500 on Monday (see below for why this could create volatility). More broadly, markets remain on tenterhooks watching developments in Brexit and US fiscal stimulus negotiations. Brexit talks have seemingly taken a turn for the worse (more below), while US fiscal stimulus talks are ongoing, but note that Congress is also today faced with a 2359EDT deadline to pass another stop-gap government funding bill to avert a government shutdown. Most expect they will do so, so as to continue talks on the broader Covid-19 aid package next week/over the weekend.
A quick look at other asset classes; commodity markets are consolidating or paring back on some of yesterday’s risk on/dovish Fed induced gains, with Brent and WTI marginally in the red, spot gold flat in the $1880s/oz and spot silver down 20 cents and back below $26.00/oz. Meanwhile, bond yields in the US and mainland Europe are higher, though UK bonds are a little lower (perhaps given some safe havens bid due to Brexit concerns). In terms of FX markets, USD is gaining some ground after yesterday’s battering, but has broadly failed to recapture the 90.00 level (in the DXY).
Tesla joins the S&P 500
Photo by Tech Nick.
Tesla (TSLA) will officially join the S&P 500 on Monday the 21st of December, which some think could precede a “frenzied” afternoon of trade this Friday. Analysts note that Tesla’s inclusion will prompt the dozens of index funds that track the S&P 500 to purchase billions of dollars of stock at Friday’s closing price, as they seek to track the index as closely as possible. Traders think the given the size of Tesla’s market capitalisation and the intra-day volatility of its share price, its addition could trigger significant market volatility.
GBP and Brexit
GBP is this morning’s G10 underperforming currency, weighed by concerns that Brexit negotiations have taken a turn for the worse.
UK PM Johnson and EU Commission President von der Leyen spoke on the phone to take stock of how negotiations are going, and the UK PM seemingly took the opportunity to up the pressure on the EU to make more concessions, particularly regarding the issue of fisheries.
The UK PM underlined to von der Leyen how the negotiations were now in a “serious situation”, that time was short and that a no-deal was inevitable if the EU did not substantially change its position. Moreover, the PM noted that the gap on the issue of level playing field had narrowed but differences remained. On fisheries, the PM told von der Leyen that EU’s position was “simply not reasonable” and stressed how the UK could not accept a situation in which it was the only sovereign nation in the world not to be able to control access to its own waters and to be faced with fisheries quotas that would disadvantage its own industry.
Separate reports allege that the issue of State Aid might have arisen again; the FT reported that Brexit talks have found a new impasse over Brussel’s EUR 750B Recovery Fund, with the UK stating that the fund cannot be exempt from enforceable principles on state aid in any trade deal. Meanwhile, UK press reported this morning that EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier has been talking about the EU’s “sovereign right to react” to the UK “reclaiming its waters”, which the reports said implies that he is not just threatening tariffs/quotas on UK fish but also in other areas.
GBP was broadly unresponsive to this morning’s mixed November UK Retail Sales report, which saw retail sales drop less than expected in November on a MoM basis (headline retail sales were down 3.8% MoM vs exp. 4.2% drop and core retail sales were down 2.6% MoM vs exp. 3.3% drop), but YoY headline retail sales growth came in under expectations at 2.4% (exp. 2.8%). Net-net, the hit from the UK’s national lockdown in November appears not to have been as bad as feared, but GBP remains much more focused on themes such as Brexit.
JPY and the Bank of Japan
USDJPY rose as high as the 103.60s overnight from yesterday’s sub-103.00 lows, with the latest BoJ rate decision seemingly not triggering much of a reaction. Quick recap of how the meeting went down; the BoJ held interest rates at -0.1% and its 10-year government bond yield target at around zero, while maintaining the parameters of its other QE purchase programmes. Meanwhile, the bank extended its corporate funding programme through to September 2021 as expected, citing increased stresses to the economy in the near-term given rising Covid-19 cases. USDJPY has fallen back from overnight highs and into the 103.30s in recent trade.
Rest of the G10 FX
FX markets are generally quite subdued, with most G10 currencies marginally lower vs the USD; EURUSD is trading around the 1.2250s, having slipped to the 1.2230s at one point overnight, with stronger than forecast December German IFO numbers helping lift the cross from lows. Meanwhile, AUDUSD is a little lower on the day but has recovered back above the 0.7600 level despite some fears regarding a new outbreak of Covid-19 in Sydney that has prompted Australian officials to put the city on high alert and reimpose interstate border restrictions. NZDUSD is also a little lower but remains supported above the 0.7100 level, with last night’s November trade numbers coming in pretty much bank in line with expectations. Meanwhile, USDCAD has risen back as high as the 1.2750 level ahead of key retail sales and housing data later in the day.
Coming Up
The main focus remains on the topics of 1) Brexit, 2) US fiscal stimulus talks, 3) pandemic related updates (vaccines, infection & death rates and lockdowns). Markets will be keeping an eye on some tier 1 Canadian data, however, as well as some Fedspeak (see below).
1330GMT/0830EDT, US Current Account (Q3) (USD): Exp. -188.9B, prev. -170.5B
1330GMT/0830EDT, Canada Retail Sales (Oct):
- Headline MoM exp. 0.1%, prev. 1.1%
- Core MoM exp. 0.3%, prev. 1.0%
1330GMT/0830EDT, Canada New Housing Price Index (Nov): MoM prev. 0.8%
1400GMT/0900EDT, ECB Board Member Andrea Enria delivers opening remarks at the ECB colloquium “A European supervisory system: from vision to reality” to commemorate Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa’s vision
1500GMT/1000EDT, US Leading Index MoM (Nov): Exp. 0.5%, prev. 0.7%
1600GMT/1100EDT, Canada Budget Balance (Oct) (CAD):
- Budget Balance Year-to-date prev. -198.11B
- Budget Balance on the month prev. -27.59B
1600GMT/1100EDT, FOMC Member Evans gives opening remarks before virtual Project Hometown “Indianapolis after the Covid-19 Pandemic” event.
1610GMT/1110EDT, FOMC Member Brainard speaks on “Climate Change and Financial Regulation” before virtual event, “The Financial System & Climate Change: A Regulatory Imperative” hosted by the Centre for American Progress.
1800GMT/1300EDT, US Weekly Baker Hughes:
- Oil Rig Count prev. 258
- Total Rig Count prev. 338
