Market Wrap – World Bank cuts growth forecast

Stocks were mixed today as well as the US dollar as the stalemate ahead of the US CPI release on Thursday likely began and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speech failed to deliver fireworks.

In somewhat of a dud speech Fed Chair Powell did not hardly touch on policy as he said that “We shouldn’t be getting ahead of where the public is without a specific mandate.”

In essence Powell’s final comments don’t touch on monetary policy. That takes away a big risk today and heading into CPI, hence why we have seen a 2 percent drop in the VIX today.

The World Bank delivered a bombshell today as it cut its 2023 global growth forecast to 1.7% from 3.0% in June forecast, marking the third weakest forecast in nearly three decades.

Breaking down the numbers, they forecast US GDP growth at +0.5% vs +2.2% in June forecast and also they saw Eurozone flat vs +1.9% in their June forecast.

Additionally, the saw Global growth outlook dimmed by effects of monetary tightening, slowdowns in US, eurozone, China and Ukraine war spill over. China 2022 growth was seen at 2.7% but will recover to 4.3% in 2023.

Far more worryingly, the World Bank warned that economic conditions are ‘fragile’, and that any new adverse development could push the global economy into recession.

In terms of data releases Wholesale inventories in the United States rose by 1% from a month earlier to $933.1 billion in November of 2022, in line with preliminary estimates and picking up from the 0.6% increase in the previous month.

Inventories accumulated at a faster pace for durable goods (1.1% vs 0.8% in October), amid a rebound for inventory changes of furniture (1.4% vs -2.2%) and professional equipment (1% vs -0.2%), while growth continued at a high pace for machinery (2.2% vs 2.9%).

Inventories levels also accelerated for non-durable goods (0.7% vs 0.3%), largely due to rebounds in stocks of drugs (2.7% vs -0.7%) and apparel (2.3% vs -0.5%). On an annual basis, wholesale inventories rose by 20.9%, slightly below the 21.9% increase from the prior month.