Market Wrap – Sentiment takes a dive

Trading sentiment took a hit during the US session, with part of the reason behind the decline due to the fact that the Chinese stock market took a hit later today.

Basically, the reopening of China after the Chinese new year was not a big hit, as some of the major Chinese indices trading down by around four or five percent.

Also denting sentiment could be profit taking. The upside momentum has faded and much of the froth of the stock rally could start to come off in the lead up to the Fed meeting.

News that OPEC are not set to give away an output cut any time soon may also hurt sentiment. This could cause energy price to rise and thus inflation higher.

The consensus is that given the uncertainties of Chinese demand recovery and a global economic slowdown, JMMC is unlikely to recommend an OPEC+ policy change. OPEC+’s next ministerial conference is scheduled for June 2023.

But if JMMC decides that a change in policy is required, it has the authority to call for a full meeting. OECD crude oil inventory continues to sit below the five-year average.

An improved Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ general business activity index did not help sentiment. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas rose 11.6 points to -8.4 in January of 2023, from an upwardly revised 20 in December.

The latest reading pointed to the ninth consecutive month of contraction in activity, though the least in the current sequence. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 9.1 to 0.2, with the near-zero reading suggestive of flat output.

Also, the new orders index was negative for the eighth month in a row, suggesting a continued decrease in demand, though it moved up from -11.0 to -4.0. Meanwhile, labour market measures pointed to stronger employment growth and longer workweeks.

Price pressures were generally steady and wage growth eased slightly in January. The future production index pushed further positive to 16.1, signalling that respondents expect output growth over the next six months. The future general business activity index remained negative, coming in at -9.1.