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Stock markets are under pressure today with USA futures heavily in the red, as they take their cue from Asian bourses which suffered heavy losses this morning.
Looking at Asia markets, China’s Shanghai Composite lost -0.6% and Hong Kong suffered a whopping Hang Seng -1.7% loss. South Korea’s KOSPI was down -0.8%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost -0.7%.
As risk-on sentiment hits we are also seeing a flight back into the US dollar today and move away from news. We are also getting a breakdown in the cryptocurrency market.
Kraken is under fire with the CEO in the headlines and a removal of stacking on his platform. Naturally, Bitcoin and Ethereum are taking a hit this morning.
Today we also got the RBA statement, following the RBA policy decision earlier this week. The statement was pretty hawkish and hinted at more rate hikes to come.
The statement noted that the “Board’s priority is to return inflation to target” and “the Board expects further increases in interest rates will be needed, and the Board mindful of rise in interest rates already made, policy acts with a lag.”
Additionally, the statement said, “Considerable uncertainty about outlook and level of rates needed to meet objectives” and “Inflation likely to have peaked at end of 2022, but labour and service costs rising.”
Other key quotes include “Domestically sourced inflation, wages growth both picking up” and RBA revises up forecasts for core inflation, wage growth and GDP, unemployment outlook little changed.
The statement also raised inflation forecasts. Trimmed mean CPI was seen at 4.3% y/y end 2023. 3.1% end 2024, 2.9% June 2025, and CPI seen at 4.8% y/y end 2023, 3.2% end 2024, 3.0% June 2025.
GDP seen at 1.6% y/y end 2023, 1.6% end 2024, 1.7% June 2025 and Forecasts based on technical assumption cash rate will peak at 3.75%, ease to 3% by June 2025. The risks to global economy have abated in recent months as China reopens.
